Biden’s missile edict is about Ukraine getting as much leverage as it can before Trump takes office

The Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with US-provided missiles is unlikely to change the course of the war dramatically. The move has been subject of fierce speculation for months, giving Russia plenty of time to adapt.

It also comes as America’s support for Ukraine is waning, with an incoming administration that seems more inclined to strike a deal with Vladimir Putin rather than underwrite Ukraine’s effort to defend itself.

The decision, however, is not inconsequential, as illustrated by the hysterical responses from Putin’s political allies inside Russia (“very big step toward the beginning of the third world war,” one member of the Duma said) and in Europe (an illustration, according to Hungary’s foreign minister, of “pro-war force” eager to “expand the war in Ukraine to a global scale”).

Ukraine’s expanded firepower gives the nation a chance to hold on to the sliver of Russian territory it has been controlling since its successful incursion into the Kursk region in the summer of this year.

That, in turn, may serve as a source of leverage for Kyiv in the upcoming negotiations.

It may well be the only ace in Zelensky’s sleeve, which is why Russian forces, with North Korean assistance, are trying so hard to push the Ukrainians out.

Those who argue that the war, like all wars, will end at a negotiating table are not completely wrong. They forget, however, that negotiations oftentimes ratify outcomes achieved on the battlefield.

If the Russians are successful in their war effort — and their steady advances suggest that they are — they will make maximalist demands on the Trump administration and on President Zelensky, likely verging on ending Ukraine’s existence as an independent nation.

Alas, President Trump is likely to acquiesce to many of those conditions — in part because neither he nor his circle deeply care about Ukraine.

Taking Ukraine’s NATO membership off the table carries zero cost for a US leader who never contemplated admitting Ukraine into the alliance to begin with.

A de facto ouster of Zelensky and Russia’s veto over Ukraine foreign policy choices in the future, also known as “Finlandization”? Why should he care?

Control over a small portion of Russia’s Kursk region is not Kyiv’s get-out-of-jail card, but it is a valuable bargaining chip, especially if Trump is eager to end the conflict quickly, freezing the current military action followed by a negotiated settlement.

In itself, it is not enough. As a result, in the two months that are left until the end of the Biden administration, the United States and its allies should do everything in their power to stabilize Ukraine’s long frontline and strengthen Kyiv’s position ahead of the coming talks.

Those who have inroads and credibility with the Trump circle, furthermore, must explain that the contours of the resulting agreement matter for America’s interests in Europe.

Steamrolling Ukraine at the negotiating table increases the likelihood that Putin waltzes in once Trump leaves office or that, through hybrid warfare, he turns Ukraine into a failed state without a viable shot at membership in the European Union.

That outcome, in turn, will determine whether the deal that Trump World so eagerly wants brings about peace — or becomes a prelude to a much larger European war.

Here’s hoping that Ukraine and the collective West use the upcoming window of opportunity to the maximum and cripple the Russian war effort — and that President Trump takes advantage of the same to reflect on what legacy he would like to leave behind as a leader.

Dalibor Rohac is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC. Twitter: @DaliborRohac.