10 hours ago
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The Dallas Stars have completely flipped the script on the Colorado Avalanche.
A clear underdog coming into the series thanks to injuries to Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson, the Stars were written off by seemingly the entire hockey world before their best-of-7 series against the Avs even started.
A loss in Game 1 only amplified the narrative that this just wasn’t Dallas’ year.
But the Stars, who were the Stanley Cup favorite just two weeks ago, weren’t going to go quietly.
Two overtime wins later, it’s Dallas in the driver’s seat of this series heading into Game 4.
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Stars vs. Avalanche Game 4 betting preview
The Stars are not just lucking their way to wins in this best-of-7; they’ve been full value for their 2-1 series lead.
Dallas has created more scoring chances at 5-on-5 than Colorado, and the Stars have done a terrific job of clogging up the middle and influencing shot attempts from the Avs.
Colorado has registered 176 shot attempts at 5-on-5 through three games, but only 68 of them have hit the net.
Not only are the Stars blocking pucks, but they’re pressuring the Avalanche into rushing chances, which is forcing shots to miss the cage.
That kind of sound, sturdy defense is the only way that the Stars will win this series considering the players that they are missing.
Tyler Seguin scored the winning goal for the Dallas Stars in Game 3. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectStars vs. Avalanche Game 4 pick
On paper, the Avalanche remain the better team in this series.
The Avs have two of the league’s best players, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, while the Stars will be without their top goalscorer and, likely, their best defenseman.
Colorado has the offensive punch to wreck any game, but Dallas’ defensive structure has succeeded in turning all three of the games in this series so far into coin flips.
That makes the price on the -178 moneyline on the Avs, quite unappealing, while the opposite is true of the Stars at +146.
The Play: Stars +146
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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