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The Toronto Maple Leafs did what they had to do on Friday night, beating the Florida Panthers, 2-0, on the road to force a Game 7 on Sunday.
Both teams have been written off at one point in this chaotic series, so it’s fitting that this roller-coaster ride will end in a winner-take-all contest.
The Panthers are a -134 favorite on the road, but that price has already bounced around a bit and will only continue to do so as we get closer to puck drop. As always, the under is taking plenty of action ahead of a Game 7.
It’s no secret that bettors love to back the under in winner-take-all in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, so bookmakers are offering the over at a discount on Sunday night.
At the time of writing, the total is sitting at 5.5 with the under juiced to -158.
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Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 7 betting preview
Stylistically, we can feel pretty comfortable projecting how these two teams want to play, should the game stay on script.
Toronto, despite its star power, wants to sit back and focus on protecting the dangerous areas of the ice. The Maple Leafs have been outplayed at 5-on-5 in both series so far, but they are comfortable with that.
Toronto has no issue letting its opponents have the puck and waiting for its opportunity to counterpunch.
A lot of bettors are skeptical about the Leafs’ pedestrian stats at 5-on-5, but there is enough of a sample size to see that their counter-attacking style works.
Florida’s Brad Marchand has a game-winning goal in this series. Getty ImagesToronto ranked near the bottom of the NHL in shot attempt percentage and expected goals rate at 5-on-5, but the Leafs still managed to win the Atlantic Division and boasted the fourth-best record in the league during the regular season.
While the Leafs will be happy playing bend-but-don’t-break hockey, the Panthers will do everything in their power to force Toronto into submission.
The Panthers have registered 131 more shot attempts and created 71 more scoring chances than the Leafs at 5-on-5 through the first six games, so the Cats should be on the front foot, applying pressure at every opportunity.
At this point in this series, we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from both teams, but there are still some wild cards.
Both goaltenders, Joseph Woll and Sergei Bobrovsky, have had good and bad moments in this series, so it’s impossible to project what we’ll see out of either one of them on Sunday night.
There are also a couple of injuries to note. Evan Rodrigues missed the last two games for Florida, while Matthew Knies is questionable for Toronto.
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And finally, we have to talk about demons. These Maple Leafs have had their fair share of nightmares in the playoffs over the last decade, but they just rebounded from a horrific showing in Game 5, so it’s not something I’d be too worried about as a bettor.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 7 pick
The margins in this series have been thin. Three of the games were decided by one goal, and two more finished 2-0, with the contest hanging in the balance until late insurance markers.
Add in the fact that this is a Game 7 in Toronto, and you can easily see a path where this game turns into a staring contest between two teams who play very different styles of hockey.
This contest has all the makings of a low-event, scrappy encounter with little to no space on the ice. That makes the alternate unders quite appealing, and it also will put me on the first period to end nil-nil.
The play: 1P Under 0.5 goals (+320) | Under 2.5 goals (+900)
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