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Learner Tien of the United States hits a return to Daniel Merida of Spain during a quarterfinal tennis match at the National Bank Open in Montreal on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. (Christinne Muschi)
Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press via AP
The Americans have been the story at the Canadian Masters so far.
Three Yanks are in the semifinals, and two of them, Ben Shelton and Learner Tien, will clash under the lights on Wednesday night. The other, Brandon Nakashima, is a decided underdog against Rafael Jodar in the early match.
Shelton, the only semifinalist with a Masters title to his name, is a -208 favorite over Tien in the headliner.
ATP Montreal: Shelton vs. Tien odds, prediction
Both of these players bring something different to the table.
Shelton’s all-around game continues to move forward, but the former Florida Gator still has a signature calling card. He can blast you off the court with his serve. And because of that, Shelton knows he only needs to create one or two opportunities to break to win a match.
Tien’s serve is nowhere near as prodigious as Shelton’s, but the 20-year-old can bring it. Plus, he’s dynamite on return.
Only 12 players have won a higher percentage of return games than Tien (23.6 percent) on the season, so he’s well-equipped to handle the power that Shelton will pack on Wednesday night.
Ben Shelton of the United States reacts during the Men’s quarter-final match against Jakub Meník of the Czech Republic on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, at IGA Stadium in Montreal, Canada. (Horacio Zamora/Eyepix Group/Shutterstock) Horacio Zamora/Eyepix Group/ShutterstockHe’s proven that twice already in his career. Tien has taken both meetings between these two rising stars, including one this season on a hard court at the Miami Masters.
Tien should also be bouyed by the conditions in Montreal, as these hard courts are a bit slower than what you’ll see elsewhere in North America, which should aide him in his fight against Shelton’s fastball.
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Shelton has the experience edge and can serve his way through anybody, but he’s got a tricky task ahead of him in this encounter. If Tien is able to dig in and rally, I think he’s got plenty of paths to an upset in this tilt.
Back Tien to make it 3-for-3 against Shelton on Wednesday.
The Play: Learner Tien moneyline (+168, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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