Barcelona vs. Inter Milan prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for UEFA Champions League semifinal 1st leg

The vaunted Barcelona attack, which has bulldozed everyone in its path so far this season, gets set for one of its toughest tests yet as the Catalans host Inter Milan in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup.

Barca have scored the most goals of any other Champions League side this season — 37, six more than anyone else — despite playing two fewer games than many of the other teams near the top of the list.

Inter are known for their defensive acumen, but they have displayed cracks in the armor of late as injuries have caused problems at both ends. Since their 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich to secure this semifinal spot, the Italian giants have lost three straight domestically, two in league play to knock them off the Scudetto lead and one to hated rivals AC Milan in the Coppa Italia semifinal. They have failed to score in each of those matches.

Yet despite his team's clear deficiencies, Simone Inzaghi is known for over-performance in Europe, and Inter will be ready to push for a potential upset.

The Sporting News takes a closer look at this intriguing matchup that feels one-sided but leaves both sides still at significant peril.

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

Barcelona vs. Inter Milan prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Barcelona (-155 on DraftKings)
• Score prediction: Barcelona 2-0 Inter Milan

Inter would normally be well-positioned to keep even an incredibly strong attack like Barcelona's in check, but injuries have hampered their biggest strengths, and they are not constructed to take advantage of Barca's biggest weakness.

Denzel Dumfries is only just returned from injury and may not be fully fit for 90 minutes, while Marcus Thuram and Benjamin Pavard are facing a late fitness test for the first leg. Even if all three are back, which seems unlikely, they won't be at their best, which will limit Inter's ability to hit Barcelona on the counter against the extremely high defensive line.

Add in that Inter's aging midfield is not equipped to attack the lack of physicality in Barcelona's central areas, and it feels as if Inter could spring an upset, but are unlikely to do so, especially on the road in the first leg. Barcelona will be motivated to establish a comfortable lead to avoid things getting hairy at the San Siro the following week.

Barcelona vs. Inter Milan match facts

• Date: Wednesday, April 30, 2025
• Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
• Location: Lluis Companys Olympic Stadium (Barcelona, Spain)
• Referee: Clement Turpin (FRA)
• Last meeting: Barcelona 3-3 Inter (Oct. 12, 2022 | Champions League)

MORE: Latest team news and injury updates ahead of Barcelona vs. Inter

Barcelona vs. Inter Milan best bet

• Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
• Odds: +130 (DraftKings)

While Barcelona should be able to establish a solid first-leg advantage, it's hard to imagine this game getting truly out of hand, and the odds here are too valuable to pass up.

For the most part, the play here is that Barcelona may find the net, but Inter are too hamstrung in the attack to really provide a response. Even if he has proven a middling goal-scoring threat himself, an injury to Thuram has been felt up front, as Inter have not scored a goal in three straight games.

Thuram could return for this first leg, but even if so, it feels rushed. Add in a few other poorly placed injuries, such as the absence of Dumfries that forced Matteo Darmian into the lineup, and their ability to counter-attack against Barcelona's high line is limited.

Despite this, Inter should at least manage to keep a lid on the match for the most part, as their back line is exceptional at defending the channels in behind where Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and even Ferran Torres love to run. Inter have conceded five goals over their past three games, but that came on a total of under 4.0 expected goals, so they've been solid at the back even as their attack has faltered.

Barcelona vs. Inter Milan prop bet

• Pick: Barcelona goalkeeper 3+ saves
• Odds: -110 on FanDuel

While Barcelona goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny isn't expected to have too much trouble in this game, he certainly will be called upon at some point to make a critical save or two. For the most part this season, he's been at the ready when required.

Barca's high line always leaves them exposed somewhat at the back, and Inter are never truly without an attacking threat as long as Lautaro Martinez is at the helm of the forward unit. They aren't exactly the most efficient team in front of goal, but they are capable of getting their few counter-attacking efforts on target, even if they're relatively tame in the end.

Of the teams that reached the Champions League knockout stage, Inter have the fourth-best expected goals per shot total, meaning they are accumulating high-value efforts, but they have the sixth-worst expected goals on target (xGOT) figure, meaning their eventual finishing has been poor. Szczesny should have a few saves to make, but don't expect them to be terribly difficult. This is a low bar for the Barcelona goalkeeper to clear, and he should be able to reach it.