ATP Washington Final: De Minaur vs. Davidovich Fokina odds, picks, and prediction

The Washington Open always produces some surprises.

Given its spot in the calendar — just a couple of weeks after Wimbledon and right before the Canadian Masters — it catches a lot of the best players in an awkward spot.

That leaves the door open for a player like Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to crash the party.

The Spaniard is no also-ran, and is the current World No. 26, but he’s never won a title in his ATP career.

He can break that schneid with a win over Alex de Minaur on Sunday.

ATP Washington: Alex de Minaur vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina odds

There’s no question about Davidovich Fokina’s talent. He’s a terrific shot-maker and a player who can drive his opponents nuts with his ability to level up for a game, set, or a match.

Davidovich Fokina is a dangerous player in a one-off, which is why he’s got 12 wins over top-10 opponents in his career.

What has held the 26-year-old back has been his inconsistency. He can look like a completely different player in any given match.

His opponent on Sunday, de Minaur, is very much the opposite.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 0-3 in ATP Finals in his career. Getty Images

The Australian is relentless, consistent, and wants to wear down his opponents with long rallies.

That could spell trouble for Davidovich Fokina, who wants to keep points shorter than de Minaur, relying on his ability to paint lines and pull points from out of nowhere.

Given how much time Davidovich Fokina has spent on court in this tournament compared to de Minaur, you’d have to give the edge to the Australian, should things stay on script.

But the Spaniard has a way of getting matches to zig and zag, which could unsettle the Aussie in this final.

Davidovich Fokina is 0-3 in his career with a trophy on the line, but he’s good value to finally get into the winner’s circle on Sunday.

The Play: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+200, bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.