As the noose tightens around Nicolas Maduro, how to ensure a strong — and pro-American — Venezuela follows

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro gestures as he arrives for the projection of a biographical series at the National Theatre of Venezuela in Caracas on November 22, 2025. AFP via Getty Images

With President Donald Trump announcing a “total and complete” oil blockade of Venezuela this week, the noose around dictator Nicolas Maduro’s is tightening.

A massive US Navy strike group was already sitting off the Venezuelan coast.

Trump called it “the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America.”

The president has also reportedly given the green light for covert operations against the regime.

Yet while Maduro’s days may be numbered, it’s not clear that a lasting democracy will follow after him.

Venezuelans have repeatedly voted for democracy.

They deserve to have one. America’s military action can topple a government, but it cannot provide the economic stability necessary for a democracy to survive.

What’s needed is an American rapid-deployment economic team ready to shore up new or fragile democracies — a US economic strike force.

If Maduro falls, a new Venezuelan government will inherit huge problems.

Broken infrastructure, over $150 billion in debt, hyperinflation, mass migration and a bad investment climate will make it incredibly difficult to get the country back on track.

Rebuilding a failed state like Venezuela without money, expertise, institutions or partners is an impossible task.

And economic chaos would put a democratic government in Caracas on a short leash.

All the while, a coalition of Maduro’s military officers — many tied to Venezuela’s cartels and criminals — would be waiting for an opportunity to recapture the state.

The return of dictatorship to Venezuela would send a dangerous message to democracies throughout Latin America: America will not meaningfully support those who choose freedom.

We must stop that from happening.

A US Economic Strike Force could take advantage of existing expertise from federal departments like Treasury, State, Commerce as well as the US Export-Import Bank and the Development Finance Corporation to help stabilize a target economy.

The goal should not be a long-term, US government intervention, but only enough support to create the conditions for private-sector investment and growth.

Without that, no democracy will survive.

The strike force should have a menu of economic tools to choose from: swap lines to stabilize the currency; direct investments or equity stakes; US-led public/private partnerships; political-risk insurance to facilitate private-sector investment; support for restructuring national debt; emergency dollar liquidity for essential imports; temporary credit guarantees to lower capital costs.

Assistance from the strike force, however, cannot be a no-strings handout.

Economic assistance must be conditional on Venezuela’s support for US foreign policy and national-security objectives.

Venezuela must agree to follow American sanctions, like those on Iran, Russia and Cuba.

It must align with US export controls, to keep critical technology away from Beijing and Moscow.

And the new government must fight back against the growing influence of China and other anti-American regimes in the Western Hemisphere.

Support from the strike force should be sequenced in phases.

Each phase would depend on the new government showing clear progress against benchmarks.

The first phase — emergency and humanitarian assistance — should begin immediately as Venezuelans have endured years of food shortages and hunger under Maduro’s rule.

If the government demonstrates its commitment to establishing a capitalist market economy, respecting private property rights and cooperating with US-led operations against the narcotrafficking cartels, a second support package could begin.

Longer-term investments — building infrastructure or preferential trade terms — should depend on creating the institutions of democracy and freedom.

Economic growth depends upon an independent judiciary, reliable law-enforcement, anti-corruption prosecutions, civil-society protections and media freedoms.

An economic strike force benefits America, as well as our new allies.

It could help reverse a migration crisis that has already displaced over 9 million Venezuelans.

If democracy fails in Venezuela again, the flow of Venezuelans fleeing will only intensify, overwhelming neighboring countries and driving additional waves of migrants toward the US border.

A viable democracy in Venezuela also gives America the best shot for crushing the narcotrafficking networks there, stopping those cartels before they expand their reach.

The Cartel de Los Soles — whose leaders are already under US indictment and sanctions — must be stopped now.

If we don’t, the cartels will take advantage of post-transition weakness to turn Venezuela into a permanent narco-state.

From the fall of the Soviet Union to the protests of the Arab Spring, the United States has been unprepared when dictators fall.

Too often, we stood by as fragile democratic movements failed under impossible conditions.

The cost of inaction in Venezuela would be similarly tragic . . . and dangerous.

If a democratic transition fails, America’s enemies — from China and Russia to Iran and Cuba — will have a golden opportunity to consolidate control over the Western Hemisphere’s largest oil reserves, transforming Venezuela into a permanent platform for hostile intelligence operations and economic influence across the Americas.

Josh Birenbaum is deputy director of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Max Meizlish is a research fellow.