Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina prediction: Australian Open Final odds, pick, best bet Saturday

The Women’s Australian Open normally features plenty of surprises, but nobody is shocked that this year’s tournament will come down to World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 5 Elena Rybakina.

Sabalenka entered the tournament as the betting favorite, and Rybakina wasn’t too far behind her at +900 odds in the pre-tournament market.

Neither player has dropped a set in this tournament, but it’s Sabalenka who is the -163 favorite.

Sabalenka vs. Rybakina odds, prediction

This is a fun riddle to solve, because it really comes down to one question: Will Sabalenka keep her cool?

Sabalenka is the world’s best player, but she has yet to master the mental side of things. Her spirit can often be her best friend on the court, but it can also be her undoing.

Last year, she fell to Madison Keys in her bid to three-peat at the Australian Open, essentially beating herself in the final.

In the previous two Australian Open curtain-closers — including against Rybakina in 2023 — Sabalenka was able to hold it together and let her game do the talking.

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It’s a familiar pattern.

We saw the best and worst versions of Sabalenka in the biggest moments of 2025.

She cost herself a chance at her first French Open title by coming completely unglued against Coco Gauff in the semifinals, but she finished the Grand Slam cycle with a resounding victory at the US Open.

Elena Rybakina celebrating a match point during the Australian Open. Getty Images

Against lesser opponents, Sabalenka can afford to let loose, knowing that one or two mistakes won’t ruin her chances. She can overpower just about any player on the WTA Tour.

But against Rybakina, arguably the most in-form player in the women’s game, the margins will be much thinner.

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She can’t just show up and expect to hit through the 26-year-old. She’ll need to be tactical, knowing that one misstep could cost the favorite a chance at her fifth Grand Slam.

Rybakina’s form suggests the talent gap between these two players is not all that wide right now, and she should have the clear edge in pressure moments.

That’s enough to get me to bite on the underdog.

The Play: Elena Rybakina +136 (bet365 sportsbook)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.