Aramco Surprises With Profit Beat in Sign of Easing Pressure

Crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah Tank Farm in Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg Photo by Simon Dawson /Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Saudi Aramco posted a surprise increase in third-quarter profit as a production boost helped mitigate the impact of lower crude prices and snapped a years-long streak of falling earnings at the oil giant.

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Adjusted net income for the period rose about 1% to 104.9 billion riyals ($28 billion) from a year earlier, surpassing analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Free cash flow exceeded the total dividend payout for the first time in about two years, while net debt eased compared with three months ago.

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The latest results follow a sequence of lower quarterly profit at Aramco over the past couple of years as the firm reaped the benefit of higher output in line with a more expansive OPEC+ policy, countering muted crude prices. The world’s biggest oil exporter is a lynchpin of the Saudi economy, with revenue from energy sales and hefty dividend payouts supporting the kingdom’s multitrillion-dollar economic revamp.

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“For Aramco, it really does come down to volume,” said Ed Bell, acting chief economist at Emirates NBD PJSC. “There will always be a trade-off between targeting price and targeting volume. And the decision this year from OPEC+ to unwind its restraint is showing that member nations want to target volume and market share.”

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Oil prices in London have declined 13% this year to about $65 a barrel, well below the more than $90 that the International Monetary Fund says Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget. That’s translated into pullbacks in some major infrastructure and tourism projects in the kingdom, while Aramco has also slowed domestic refining and chemical plans as it focuses on a mega natural gas development.

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Aramco sold its oil at about $70 a barrel in the third quarter, compared with nearly $79 a year earlier. Liquids production increased 3.8% to 10.8 million barrels a day, while natural gas output rose 5%. Aramco said overall hydrocarbon production was about 1 million barrels of oil equivalent higher daily compared with the level at the end of the first quarter.

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The company’s “ability to quickly ramp-up production and capture rising demand drove our strong third-quarter performance,” Chief Financial Officer Ziad Al-Murshed said in the statement.

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The shares rose as much as 1.3% in Saudi trading on Tuesday. The stock was trading near a record low in mid-September, weighed down by concerns over earnings and growth plans. They’ve increased about 12% since then, in line with the benchmark Saudi index, to narrow an annual decline.

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On Tuesday, BP Plc also reported profit that exceeded expectations, backed by higher crude and gas production.

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Aramco is continuing to invest in major development projects like the Jafurah unconventional gas field, which is set to start production this year and reach full capacity in 2030. The project is contributed to Aramco boosting its target for gas output to an 80% increase over levels at the start of the decade. Previously Aramco had been targeting a 60% rise.

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Aramco’s free cash flow — funds left over from operations after accounting for investments and expenses — rose to $23.6 billion in the quarter. That was enough to cover the total dividend payout of $21.4 billion. The gearing ratio eased to 6.3% as of Sept. 30 from 6.5% in the previous three months.

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(Updates with analyst comment in the fourth paragraph.)

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