Andrew Cuomo would beat Zohran Mamdani in head-to-head race for NYC mayor: bombshell poll

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Independent mayoral hopeful Andrew Cuomo would beat Democratic front-runner Zohran Mamdan in a head-to-head race, a bombshell new poll found — as Cuomo was in striking distance a day before the general election.

The new AtlasIntel survey, which dropped Monday afternoon, has Mamdani with 43.9% of support with Cuomo trailing in second with 39.4%.

Andrew Cuomo wearing a "Cuomo For Mayor" sweatshirt, pumping his fist and smiling, while campaigning in Washington Heights.Independent mayoral hopeful Andrew Cuomo, seen her campaigning in Washington Heights Monday, would beat Democratic front-runner Zohran Mamdan in a head-to-head race, a bombshell new poll found. James Keivom

📊FINAL ATLAS POLL

2025 NYC Mayoral Election

Mamdani (D) leads with 43.9% of the vote (+3.3 since Oct. 30), while Cuomo (I) trails close behind at 39.4% (+5.4 since Oct. 30). With Sliwa (R) dropping 8.6pp, the gap between Mamdani and Cuomo decreased to 4.5pp. pic.twitter.com/cP1FZqpoAH

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2025

GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa remained in third place at 15.5% while just over 1% of voters were undecided or would not vote.

The poll, which surveyed just over 2,400 voters, comes a day after the same polling outfit had Cuomo trailing Mamdani by six points.

Just over 2,400 voters were surveyed for the poll that was conducted between Friday and Sunday. It has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

In a hypothetical two-way race, Cuomo tops Mamdani 49.7% to 44.1%.

Zohran Mamdani speaking at a press conference at City Hall Park.In a hypothetical two-way race, Cuomo tops Mamdani 49.7% to 44.1%, per the poll. William Farrington

Notably, though, the party breakdown of those surveyed overestimates the Republican and Independent vote while downplaying the Democratic vote.

Early voting has Dems accounting for just over 73% of the votes, GOP voters at around 11% and independents at just under 15%.

This poll, however, has Dems at just 59%, Republican voters at 19% and independents at nearly 22%.

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