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Report details record spending, rising bitumen output, and significant increase in Alberta’s oil and gas reserves estimates
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Calgary, Alberta, June 25, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) today released its 2025 Alberta Energy Outlook (a statistical report formerly known as ST98), a comprehensive review of 2024 production and a 10-year forecast covering Alberta’s full energy mix—from conventional oil and gas to hydrogen, geothermal, helium, and lithium.
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“Alberta continues to lead Canada’s energy story—not only through robust oil and gas production but also by accelerating momentum in emerging resources like hydrogen, lithium, and geothermal,” said Afshin Honarvar, Principal Economist.
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“The 2025 Alberta Energy Outlook offers valuable insights to support planning and investment across all parts of Alberta’s energy sector. These new estimates emphasize Alberta’s crucial role in providing affordable and reliable energy,” he added.
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In 2024, Alberta continued to hold its strong position as Canada’s energy cornerstone, producing 60% of the nation’s natural gas and 84% of its total oil equivalent. Bitumen alone accounted for two-thirds of Canada’s oil-equivalent output and is projected to remain the main driver of supply growth over the next decade.
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The energy sector in Alberta invested a nine-year high of Cdn$30.9 billion developing crude oil, natural gas, oil sands, and emerging resources.
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Growth is not limited to oil and gas. Alberta’s emerging-resource sector—hydrogen, geothermal, helium, and lithium—continues to accelerate:
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- Hydrogen production is expected to climb from 2.6 million tonnes/yr in 2024 to 4.4 million t/yr by 2034, an average annual increase of six per cent.
- Geothermal output is forecasted to expand, and helium production is expected to be fivefold over the same period, buoyed by recent project announcements.
- Though Alberta has no commercial lithium output today, production is forecast to reach 14.8 thousand t/yr by 2034, supporting battery-metal supply chains.
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Canada has more than doubled its gas reserves, elevating its global ranking from 15th to 9th place. As per the March 2025, Government of Alberta announcement on reserves, the evaluation by McDaniel and Associates Consultants Ltd. is still in progress, therefore this year’s production forecast does not account for the ongoing work. The impact of the new reserves and resources data on the production forecast will be evaluated alongside other factors, such as pipeline takeaway capacity, market conditions, and investment trends, in the 2026 Alberta Energy Outlook.
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The 2025 Alberta Energy Outlook report is a data-driven, objective, and comprehensive resource that governments, industry, and other interested parties, such as the business community, may use for planning or making decisions about Alberta’s diverse energy sector.
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The report features an interactive online format on aer.ca that allows users to select, customize, and create various graphs using reported data.
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About the Alberta Energy Regulator
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The AER provides for the safe, efficient, orderly, and environmentally responsible development of energy resources in Alberta through our regulatory activities. For more information visit aer.ca.
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