Adani Power shares up 8% in 2 weeks. Should you buy before the stock split clock runs out?

Adani Power shares have climbed 8% in the past two weeks, extending their gains to 23% this year and nearly 10% over the past month. With September 22 set as the record date for the company’s first-ever stock split, investors face a critical question: is now the time to buy before the split broadens participation and potentially fuels more upside?

Shares closed at Rs 648.65 on Friday, rising more than 6% in just one week. The rally has been driven by a mix of new project wins, regulatory approvals, and the much-anticipated stock split that has sharpened focus on the company’s growth trajectory.

Expansion drive

On Thursday, Adani Power said it secured a 1,600 MW ultra-supercritical thermal power project from MP Power Management Company. The Rs 21,000 crore investment will create a new unit in Anuppur, Madhya Pradesh, under a design, build, finance, own and operate model.

The order includes an additional 800 MW capacity awarded under a greenshoe option, adding to an earlier 800 MW the firm had already won.

“We are delighted that Adani Power has not only secured the initial 800 MW project in Madhya Pradesh but has also been awarded an additional 800 MW under the greenshoe option. This reinforces our commitment to providing reliable, affordable and sustainable power to the state and its people,” said SB Khyalia, CEO of Adani Power.

The latest award marks the company’s fifth major supply order in 12 months, taking its total awarded capacity to 7,200 MW.

Regulatory approvals and Bhutan hydro

The Madhya Pradesh win follows clearance last week for an underground coal mining project at Gondkhairi in Nagpur district. With a capacity of 2 million tonnes per annum and a 30-year life, the project is expected to create 860 direct and 1,600 indirect jobs.

In parallel, Adani Power signed a shareholders’ agreement with Bhutan’s Druk Green Power Corp to develop a 570 MW hydroelectric project at Wangchhu. Adani Power will hold 49% of the joint venture, with DGPC owning the remainder.

Stock split looms

Shareholders last week approved the company’s first-ever stock split, in which each Rs 10 share will be subdivided into five shares of Rs 2 each. September 22 has been set as the record date.

“Adani Power’s upcoming stock split is expected to be a structural positive for the stock, as it will enhance liquidity by lowering the per-share price and making it more accessible to a larger base of retail investors,” said Amruta Shinde, research analyst at Choice Broking. “While the split will not impact the company’s intrinsic valuation, it is likely to improve trading volumes, investor participation, and overall sentiment, thereby supporting better price discovery going forward.”

Shinde noted the stock is “moving within a rising parallel channel, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. A sustained move above the critical resistance level of Rs 660 could trigger further upside toward the Rs 700–730 range in the near term.”

Analysts weigh upside

Harshal Dasani, business head at INVasset PMS, said stock splits “could increase liquidity, as a lower share price can encourage more retail participation, especially among smaller investors.” But he cautioned that “while stock splits often lead to a temporary surge in investor sentiment, they don’t change the underlying fundamentals or valuation.”

Dasani pointed to the company’s recent triggers — the Madhya Pradesh order, the Nagpur coal mine approval, and the Bhutan hydro project — as strengthening the investment case. “Given the positive triggers … a reasonable near-term target price could be Rs 750–780, based on current technical support and market conditions,” he said, identifying Rs 800 as the next psychological resistance.

“Support: In the near term, Adani Power has established key support near Rs 600, which aligns with the lower bounds of its recent price action. The 200-day EMA around Rs 590 also offers solid support. If the price dips below Rs 590, it could trigger further downside toward Rs 550,” he said.

Technical setup

“On the daily chart, Adani Power Ltd has given a breakout from Ascending triangle formation, signaling the beginning of a potential bullish trend,” said Drumil Vithlani, technical research analyst at Bonanza. “With a strong support base around Rs 595, the stock offers a favorable risk-reward setup and has the potential to rally towards Rs 730 in the near term.”

Vithlani pegged “key support at Rs 625 and Rs 600, with resistance at Rs 700 and Rs 730.”

Shinde of Choice Broking added that the stock is “trading comfortably above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, reflecting strong momentum across all timeframes, while the RSI at 66.31 continues to trend upward, signaling positive momentum but also warranting some caution near the upper boundary of the channel.”

What’s next for investors?

Investors are also watching upcoming goods and services tax reforms due September 22. Removal of the compensation cess on coal could lower landed costs by 8–10% and boost margins under long-term contracts.

With momentum from fresh orders, regulatory approvals, and the stock split deadline drawing near, analysts broadly expect the stock to test higher resistance levels. For investors, the question remains whether to ride the rally before the split, or wait and see if the clock running down brings volatility along with opportunity.

Also read | Explained: What is China's anti-involution shift and how it impacts Indian stocks

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)