2026 NFL Draft odds, picks: Which long shots could go No. 1 overall?

The betting market for the NFL Draft is volatile and will remain that way until the bookmakers pull the odds off the board right before the show starts on the evening of April 23, 2026.

This year’s market, at least as things stand right now, figures to be even more chaotic than most.

That’s because two of the three teams with the best chance at the No. 1 overall pick, the Giants and Titans, are not in the market for a quarterback, while the other, the Raiders, are desperate for one. The same can also be said of the Jets and Browns, who are one game “back” in the tankathon.

Should things hold, and the Giants land the No. 1 overall pick, the speculation of a trade will start immediately.

Will Big Blue swap picks with the Jets, Raiders or Browns, allowing one of them to nab a quarterback at the top of the order?

The same thing goes for the Titans, who landed quarterback Cam Ward at No. 1 overall last year.

The oddsmakers seem to believe that this is the likeliest scenario, as Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a relative unknown before August, is the odds-on favorite to have his name called first by the commish.

Mendoza is -175 at bet365 sportsbook, putting him ahead of another quarterback, Oregon’s Dante Moore (+300), and Miami defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. (+600).

What makes this all fascinating to handicap right now is that the Giants, the likeliest team to land the top pick, will likely have no interest in drafting any of the three betting favorites.

Ohio State’s Arvell Reese makes a tackle against Michigan. Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Should the Giants fall off the perch, things will change quickly (and Big Blue does play the Raiders in Week 17), but for now, it’s their race to lose, and bettors can, and should, take advantage of that.

There are a few names, all at long odds, that should at the very least pique your interest if you’re looking to get in some early bets and hope to beat the insane line movement that will take place over the next few months.

Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State (18/1)

The best linebacker in college football, Arvell Reese, could be the final piece of a young, dynamic defense for the Giants. He’s a do-it-all type of player, and a potential game-wrecker in the same vein as Roquan Smith or Fred Warner.

Adding to the value of this pick is that Reese could be of significant interest to the Titans, should Tennessee find itself with the No. 1 overall pick for the second straight year.

Betting on the NFL?

• Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
• Check out the best NFL betting sites
• Get the BetMGM Bonus Code

Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (100/1)

The Giants believe they have their franchise quarterback with Jaxson Dart, so it makes sense for them to protect their investment. Should Big Blue go that route, they are in luck. There are plenty of really talented offensive tackles in this class, including Miami’s Francis Mauigoa.

Mauigoa, a native of American Samoa, was a star in his recruiting class and has lived up to the hype with Miami, serving as the most important player on one of the best offensive lines in the country.

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (100/1)

I know it’s essentially illegal to suggest taking a running back with the No. 1 overall pick, but we’re already beginning to hear a lot of folks inside NFL Draft circles tag Love as one of their favorite prospects in this class.

And while it is unlikely that the Giants will want to deal with the backlash that would come with zagging and grabbing a running back at the top of the show, players like Love just don’t come around very often.

Not only is he a bellcow on the ground, but he’s a major weapon in the passing game, which has caused him to be compared to prime Reggie Bush.

All odds via bet365.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.