2026 Farmers Insurance Open predictions: PGA odds, picks for Brooks Koepka’s return

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Sahith Theegala playing a shot during the pro-am at the Sony Open in Hawaii 2026. Sahith Theegala in action at the Sony Open. Getty Images

And just like that, we’re getting into the thick of it on the PGA Tour.

Scottie Scheffler earned the first of what will presumably be a handful of victories at last week’s American Express, cashing in as a prohibitive +300 favorite. We tip our cap to Scheffler and those who kept it simple by betting on the best player in the world, but it’s just not my style to bet on a player at that kind of price in a golf tournament. Especially one that regularly is won by triple-digit long shots.

The California Swing continues with this week’s Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego. Luckily for us, Scheffler is skipping this event.

With the World No. 1 on the sidelines, it’s Xander Schauffele’s turn to top the betting board. The San Diego native is a lukewarm favorite at 15/1, putting him just ahead of Ludvig Aberg (19/1), who picked up a win at Torrey Pines at the 2025 Genesis.

There’s a slew of other golfers between 24/1 and 30/1, including Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, and Hideki Matsuyama, but you need to scroll a bit until you get to the biggest name in the field this week.

Brooks Koepka, making his return to the PGA Tour, is 55/1 to win at bet365 Sportsbook. This is Koepka’s first start in a non-major on the PGA Tour since the 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, an event that no longer exists.


Betting on golf?


There will be an abundance of media interest in Koepka ahead of his return, but we’ll see if bettors bite at what looks like a tempting price on the surface.

Torrey Pines is a place that usually brings out the best from the best — Tiger Woods has nine victories on this track — so it’s probably wise to keep your betting card tidy this week. That won’t stop us from sprinkling a few logical long shots, but we’ll also cover our bases with one of the big-game hunters from the top of the board.

Cameron Young of the United States playing his shot from the 18th tee during the second round of the Hero World Challenge 2025.Cameron Young ended 2025 in spectacular form. Getty Images

2026 Farmers Insurance Open picks

Cameron Young (22/1, FanDuel)

It’s no guarantee that a golfer will carry form from one season to the next, but it’s hard to ignore what Cameron Young put together down the stretch in 2025. The Westchesterian rhymed off six straight top-10 finishes, including his maiden PGA Tour victory, to wrap up his campaign, giving him eight on the year.

His history at Torrey Pines isn’t great, but his skillset should jive on a track that rewards ball-striking and a strong off-the-tee game.

Sahith Theegala (80/1, bet365)

Even without Scheffler or Rory McIlroy, there is a decent of starpower in this field, so it’s no wonder that a few golfers with strong profiles are slipping through the cracks this week. Sahith Theegala fits that bill.

Sahith Theegala playing a shot during the pro-am at the Sony Open in Hawaii 2026.Sahith Theegala in action at the Sony Open. Getty Images

The 28-year-old is coming off a T8 at the American Express, and he’s got some solid history at this event with a couple of top-20 finishes, including a T4 in 2023.

Tony Finau (180/1, DraftKings)

This is a crossroads moment for Tony Finau.

Once projected to be a top-10 mainstay, Finau’s career feels like it could be unraveling. The 36-year-old has missed two cuts to begin his 2026 campaign, and if he fails to make noise at Torrey Pines, a place he’s treated like his personal playground, it may be time to wave bon voyage to the big-hitting Utahn.

Finau has a runner-up, six top-6 finishes, and seven top-10 showings in his last 10 trips to Torrey Pines. Current form be damned, if you’re offering 180/1 on a player with that kind of course history, I’ll certainly give it a long look.


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.

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