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We’re about to hit the first quarter pole of the 2025 MLB season, making this a great time to reassess the big picture to try to find some betting opportunities in the futures market.
While not much has changed at the very top of the oddsboard after 40 games — the Dodgers and Yankees still top the betting in their respective leagues — the landscape behind last year’s World Series combatants has changed.
We’ll get to that, and a lot more, below.
The National League is wide open in a good way
It seems safe to predict that the NL is going to be a gauntlet come October.
The Dodgers are the best team in the world, the Mets surged through April, the Cubs raced to the top of the Central, and that doesn’t even touch on the hot-starting Padres, Giants, and Phillies.
But that isn’t even close to the entire story in the playoff race at the first turn.
The Braves have climbed out of a massive hole, the Diamondbacks are hanging around, and the NL Central has four teams that are in the mix.
A simpler way of putting it would be that only Colorado, Miami, and Pittsburgh look like sure things to be counted out right now.
That leaves 12 teams vying for a spot in October.
With the field this deep, one club is bound to fly under the radar, and to me, that team is the Braves.
Atlanta still has plenty of work left to do to erase its 0-7 start, but the gap between the Braves and the top of the NL East is down to just a handful of games, and Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider are both close to rejoining the team.
The Braves won’t be 16/1 (Bet365) to win the World Series for much longer.
What do with the AL MVP race?
This is a new one for all of us. Aaron Judge is a -900 favorite to be named Most Valuable Player after 40 games. That is an astonishing number, given there are well over 100 games to play this season.
No matter what, the price on Judge being this lopsided means that there will be decent value behind him on the betting board.
Assuming Judge is mostly healthy for the rest of the season, it will take something extraordinary to beat him, but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth a shot.
Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson is the player I have circled at 80/1 (Caesars Sportsbook). The former No. 1 overall pick is finally breaking out with 10 home runs and a .385 wOBA in his first 39 games this season. If he keeps up that pace, he can hang around long enough to take advantage of any slipup from Judge.
The NL MVP race is wide open
While the AL MVP race will come down to Judge vs. the field, the National League is a completely different picture with five players boasting single-digit odds as we barrel into mid-May.
Shohei Ohtani is the +200 favorite, but he’s got Pete Alonso, Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Corbin Carroll sitting right off the pace.
Ohtani is a threat to put the field away at any time, but there’s a long shot way down the board that’s worth a sprinkle.
After battling an illness before the season, Mookie Betts is back to 100 percent and could be a dark horse to buy in on at 80/1 (FanDuel).
Betts posted a .343 wOBA and 1.5 WAR during the first quarter of the season when he wasn’t close to feeling his best.
If Betts improves on those numbers going forward, he’ll climb up the oddsboard quickly.
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