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The Kentucky Oaks is run the same weekend, on the same track, over the same surface as the Kentucky Derby, but it always asks handicappers to try to solve a very different puzzle than the Run for the Roses.
This year, horseplayers will have to decide if they’ll want to lay the wood with clear favorite No. 11 Good Cheer (6-5, TwinSpires), or if they’ll try to beat the undefeated filly.
And if it isn’t Good Cheer, punters will have to decide which of the other contenders they think can pull the upset, as there are seven horses priced between 6-1 and 12-1 on the morning line, and they’re not all that different in terms of their running style.
2025 Kentucky Oaks picks
How to bet on the favorite
Railbirds around the world seem to be in lockstep that No. 11 Good Cheer is the horse to beat and, if the price holds, it isn’t a terrible idea to throw a win bet on the undefeated homebred.
That said, this is Kentucky Derby weekend, so we’ll bypass a win bet on Good Cheer. It’s just too short a price to swallow, and this will be the toughest field that she’s ever faced.
That doesn’t mean you should completely ignore her, but instead use her in exotic bets, like exactas and trifectas, with some prices that can juice up your ticket for a big score. She’s also one to use with a Derby long shot if you’re going to play the Oaks/Derby double.
As for how to approach the Pick 5, if you’re going to play it, there will likely be a healthy amount of folks looking to single Good Cheer, so it’s probably a good idea to go in another direction by at least looping in one or two other contenders. If Good Cheer does get upset, a huge part of the pool will get eliminated in that final leg.
Expect to see plenty of pink in the crowd at the 2025 Kentucky Oaks. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters ConWin bet
No. 3 Fondly (20-1)
Perhaps this is a reach, but when you’re dealing with a massive favorite at the top of the field, you’re going to have to do that if you want a price worth your while.
We can tip our cap to Good Cheer as the horse to beat, but if things don’t go her way on Friday, the race completely opens up as there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of separation between the handful of horses with realistic chances of hitting the board in this race.
With that being the case, we’ll go with a 20-1 shot on the morning line in Fondly, a horse that is lightly raced but has been lights out in her two starts.
We don’t know what this horse’s ceiling will eventually be, but the early indications are that it could be as high as anybody in this field.
Horses to use in exotics
No. 1 Early On (30-1)
Not too dissimilar to Fondly, the thinking here is that the gap between the horses behind Good Cheer is really not that wide.
The inside-post position won’t be too much of a concern, because there’s so much pace in this race that it’s not a huge deal if Early On sits back and stalks the field, as is her preferred style.
Not a likely winner, but a horse that can pick up the pieces late and hit the board to give your exotics some buzz.
No. 2 Simply Joking (10-1)
Simply Joking is a contender to go gate-to-wire on Friday, but she also showed the ability to fend off rivals down the stretch in a hard-fought second at the Grade II Fantasy Stakes at the end of March.
This price may come down, as folks try to beat Good Cheer, but this is the speed horse that the chalkeaters will be worrying about when it comes time to run on Friday evening.
No. 11 Good Cheer (6-5)
This is the horse to beat in this field, so it doesn’t make much sense to completely toss her.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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