Zelenskyy Wins Serbian Pledges as Russian Influence Wanes

Volodymyr Zelenskyy Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg Photo by Jason Alden /Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a landmark first visit on Saturday to Serbia to expand cooperation with the Balkan country whose leader has been scaling back once-close ties with Russia.

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Serbia and Ukraine will work together on the common goal of joining the European Union, and intend to finalize a mutual free trade agreement by the end of the year, Zelenskyy and his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vucic told reporters in Belgrade after their meeting. Vucic’s government also pledged more humanitarian aid, infrastructure and energy equipment for Ukraine. 

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“Our cooperation is expanding and will become much bigger,” said Vucic, who offered his country’s help in rebuilding Ukrainian cities damaged during the Russian invasion that’s now well into its fifth year. Still, Serbia’s leader said he was skeptical that either state may be offered to join the EU soon.

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“I wish Ukraine every success, but this is not just a merit-based process,” Vucic said in reference to expansion of the 27-nation bloc that hasn’t taken in new members since 2013.

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Vucic had been an ally of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin for years before relations soured after Russia launched its war with Ukraine. While Serbia hasn’t joined sanctions against Moscow, it has condemned the war and reduced Russia’s economic influence over the country. In turn, Russia has accused Belgrade of backstabbing it by helping to arm Ukraine.

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Vucic has tried to maintain his trademark geopolitical balancing act, given Serbia’s continued structural dependence on gas imports from Russia. Still, he’s urged Gazprom Neft PJSC to sell back its majority stake in the NIS AD refiner to Serbia or to third-party investors as the nation’s fuel market depends on the company whose business is hampered by US sanctions.

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“Zelenskyy’s arrival in Belgrade this Saturday would have been unthinkable only a few years ago,” said Vuk Velebit, president of the Pupin Initiative, which aims to foster Serbian-US relations. “This is not a courtesy call. It’s a confirmation that the relationship between Serbia and Ukraine has quietly entered a new phase.” 

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Serbia’s trade with Russia has decreased amid unprecedented international sanctions on Moscow over the war. That’s also had an impact on Belgrade’s army, which once depended on Soviet-era equipment and has been forced to switch to Western-made kit. 

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Russian MIG fighter jets in Serbia’s air force will be gradually replaced by French Rafales under a 2024 deal with Dassault Aviation SA.

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At the same time, Vucic has sought closer ties with US President Donald Trump and his family. A “strategic dialog” between Serbia and the US also began last month.

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The Serbian president has domestic political reasons not to demonstrate his distancing from Moscow too openly, though, since many of his voters cherish the country’s centuries-old ties with Russia. Those feelings were cemented in the 1990s when Serbia was under Western sanctions during Yugoslavia’s bloody breakup, and even more so in 1999 when NATO bombed Serbia to force its troops out of Kosovo.