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Carlos Rodon will be tasked with keeping the Yankees’ season alive Tuesday night.
Rodon was as dependable as almost any starting pitcher in the league this season, logging 33 starts, 195 1/3 inningsand posting a 3.09 ERA.
The southpaw’s under-the-hood numbers also were solid, if not spectacular.
According to Baseball Savant, Rodon landed in the 79th percentile in xERA, 85th percentile in expected batting average against and was in the 84th percentile in whiff rate.
The Yankees are down 2-0 in a best-of-five series, so they’ve got a ton of work to do to just keep their season going, but they should feel pretty good about the pitcher they are handing the ball to Tuesday.
The Blue Jays, who are +132 underdogs in Game 3 but -550 to win the series, will counter with Shane Bieber.
Carlos Rodon of the Yankees. Getty ImagesYankees vs. Blue Jays Game 3 odds, prediction
It’s hard to take much from the first two games of this series and use them for how you’re going to handicap Game 3 and, if necessary, beyond.
The Blue Jays got exactly what they needed out of their two starting pitchers, they came up with clutch hit after clutch hit on offense and they played the Yankees out of the building in both games.
You tip your cap, but it’s hard to imagine things will come as easily for Toronto moving forward.
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Perhaps Bieber, a former Cy Young winner, puts up some vintage numbers, but he’s been closer to ordinary than great during his short stint with Toronto.
Bieber was on the sidelines recovering from Tommy John surgery when Cleveland dealt him to Toronto, so it’s not a shock that he’s been a mixed bag in his first go-round with a reconstructed arm.
The 30-year-old has done a terrific job at limiting free passes, but he’s giving up way too much hard contact. If he had enough innings to qualify, Bieber would rank near the bottom of the bin in hard hit rate and barrel percentage, which explains why he’s giving up 1.8 home runs per 9 innings.
That’s not a recipe for success against the Pinstripes.
The price on the Yankees to win Game 3 seems fair, but I think the savviest way to back the Bombers is to look beyond Tuesday night.
The media in Toronto, likely a bit jittery because of the Maple Leafs’ history of playoff collapses, is painting Game 3 as pretty close to a must-win. That may sound hyperbolic, but there is some logic to it.
The Yankees have already tapped Cam Schlittler as their starter for Game 4, should they get there, while the Jays will have to patch things together with a bullpen game, likely led by Eric Lauer.
Advantage Bombers.
Just getting back to Toronto is a massive ask for the Yankees, but if they do, they’ll have their ace, Max Fried, set up to take on Kevin Gausman in an all-hands-on-deck scenario.
Shane Bieber aims to end the Yankees’ season Tuesday night. Getty ImagesIn other words, there is a path to a comeback here. And should the Yankees erase a 2-0 series deficit and advance, they’ll be brimming with confidence, and as dangerous as any team left in the field.
This isn’t a bet you’re likely to win, but if you do believe that the Yankees are worth backing Tuesday night, you should consider backing them in the World Series market because things are set up for them to put a real scare into the Blue Jays should they come out on top in Game 3.
The Play: Yankees to win the World Series 16/1 (BetMGM)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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