Yankees vs. Athletics pick: Fade the starting pitchers on Friday night

Not all results during the 162-game baseball season are created equal, and you have to think that Wednesday’s 4-3 victory for the Yankees over the Padres was a bigger boost than just the plus-1 in the win column.

Not only did the Yanks get another splendid start from Max Fried, but the much maligned Devin Williams got the win by wriggling out of a bases-loaded jam in the 10th inning.

The Yankees now head to Sacramento for a three-game set with the Athletics over the weekend. 

The Pinstripes are a -146 favorite on the road.

Yankees vs. Athletics betting preview

Will Warren will get the start for the Yankees at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, and that seems like a recipe for disaster.

Sutter Health Park has been a happy hunting ground for hitters this season, ranking second overall in Park Factors behind Camden Yards. 

Warren has struggled to keep bats quiet this season, ranking in the bottom one percent of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity in 2025.

The 25-year-old has matched that with a poor walk rate, which has led to a 5.65 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 28 ⅔ innings of work.

Warren is able to get strikeouts and groundballs, but he’s far too prone to walks and dingers, which is bad news in this ballpark and against an Athletics offense that is performing admirably.

Osvaldo Bido of the Athletics pitching at Sutter Health Park. Getty Images

The good news for the Yankees is that Warren’s counterpart, Osvaldo Bido, has also struggled to get going this season.

Bido, like Warren at Yankee Stadium, doesn’t have an easy job pitching half of his starts in a band box, but his statistical profile is underwhelming.

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Yankees vs. Athletics pick

Given the hitting conditions, the pitching matchup, and the offenses on display, it’s no surprise to see a juiced-up 10.5 as the total for Friday’s contest in Sacramento.

Instead of going in that direction, I’ll isolate this starting pitching matchup by playing the Over 5.5 runs in the first five innings, as it’s hard to imagine neither of these offenses posting some crooked numbers against Warren and/or Bido.

The Play: F5 innings – Over 5.5 runs