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After 72 exhilarating group-stage matches, the biggest FIFA World Cup in history has finally reached the knockout stage.
The inaugural Round of 32 — which began with Canada’s dramatic 1-0 win over South Africa on Sunday and really gets going with three games Monday — ushers in a new era for the World Cup. Thirty-two nations are now competing in a single-elimination survival of the fittest. Lose, and you’re headed home. Win, and advance to the next round.
Before we look ahead to the Round of 32, let’s look at some of the biggest storylines from the group stage.
The group stage belonged to Africa
If the group stage taught us anything, it’s that this tournament has been every bit as global as FIFA envisioned. But no continent made a louder statement than Africa.
Nine of the tournament’s 10 African representatives punched tickets to the knockout rounds, an astonishing achievement that speaks to the continent’s remarkable rise. Cape Verde, the tournament’s biggest Cinderella story, is still standing alongside powers such as Senegal, Morocco, Algeria, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Ghana, South Africa and Congo.
The hosts held home court
The United States, Mexico and Canada all advanced, ensuring the home crowds will continue to fuel the tournament into July.
Favorites look the part
The top four betting favorites before the tournament began still remain the teams to beat. Argentina, France, Spain and England each went undefeated and won their groups, while stars like Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal and Ousmane Dembélé reminded everyone why they are the best players in the world today.
The marquee matchups in the Round of 32
The inaugural Round of 32 features 16 matches across six days with several heavyweight clashes worthy of later rounds.
The marquee match is between No. 6 Morocco and No. 7 Netherlands, the only pairing of two top 10 FIFA-ranked teams in the Round of 32.
We know at least one top-ranked team will be knocked out soon, but if you’re a fan of soccer, there are three more matches worthy of being circled.
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No. 5 Brazil vs. No. 17 Japan has all the ingredients for a classic. Japan has become one of the world’s most disciplined tactical sides, while Brazil enters chasing a record sixth World Cup crown.
No. 8 Portugal vs. No. 13 Croatia feels like a heavyweight prizefight between two veteran European powers. It also features two longtime teammates at Real Madrid in Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric, both still playing into their 40s.
Then there’s No. 10 Belgium vs. No. 18 Senegal, another matchup featuring two top 20 nations where the winner immediately becomes a dangerous threat in the bottom half of the bracket.
The three host nations each have favorable opportunities as well. No. 32 Canada opened the knockout stage against No. 52 South Africa, advancing with a late strike in stoppage time. No. 9 Mexico faces No. 24 Ecuador on Tuesday, while No. 15 United States welcomes No. 61 Bosnia-Herzegovina on Wednesday night.
Path to the semifinals
Not every road to the semifinals is created equal. Some contenders caught favorable draws. Others are staring at an absolute gauntlet before they can even think about reaching the final four.
The biggest winner when the bracket was finalized might have been No. 1 Argentina.
The reigning champions not only face the lowest-ranked team remaining in the tournament in No. 64 Cape Verde, but No. 11 Colombia stands as the only projected top 15 opponent they would face before a potential semifinal.
Argentina’s potential opponent in an Atlanta semifinal is more difficult to predict.
No. 5 Brazil, No. 9 Mexico and No. 4 England all occupy the same neighborhood. Only one can emerge, meaning one of the tournament favorites will almost certainly eliminate another before reaching the final four.
The United States drew the tournament’s toughest path
Unfortunately for American supporters, the U.S. has the toughest road to the semifinals.
Should the Americans defeat Bosnia, the likely reward is No. 10 Belgium. Survive that and No. 3 Spain probably waits. No. 9 Portugal remains another realistic obstacle. That’s potentially three opponents ranked inside FIFA’s top 10 before even reaching the semifinals.
It is, by every reasonable measure, the most difficult path any contender faces.
And the reward for surviving that gauntlet?
France.
The 2018 champions and 2022 runners-up appear to have the second-most favorable road to the semifinals, with No. 12 Germany representing the toughest projected obstacle before a likely showdown with either No. 6 Morocco or No. 7 Netherlands.
In other words, if the United States dreams of reaching its first men’s World Cup Final, Mauricio Pochettino’s squad may have to eliminate Belgium, Spain/Portugal and France in succession. That’s not just difficult. It’s arguably the toughest stretch any nation has ever faced in a World Cup knockout bracket.
But that’s the beauty of the World Cup and knockout soccer. Rankings become meaningless after kickoff and all it takes is one mistake to end a dream or one spectacular moment to become a legend forever.
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