Wood Mackenzie: Era of US$2–4/mmbtu Henry Hub natural gas prices ending as demand and supply conditions shift toward US$5/mmbtu (real) by 2035

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“Associated gas accounted for roughly half of all US gas supply growth over the past decade at near-zero marginal cost. Over the next ten years, that share is expected to fall below 20%,” said Dulles Wang, Director, Americas Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie. “With supply less responsive to price signals than it once was, prices will need to go higher and stay higher to bring new molecules to market, particularly from dedicated gas producers.”

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For upstream operators, LNG project developers and counterparties in long-term offtake negotiations, the price trajectory in this report is a direct input to investment decisions being made now. The shift in price formation at Henry Hub, from supply-driven to demand-driven, changes the risk calculus for any position exposed to US gas economics.

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Henry Hub remains a localised benchmark, shaped by supply, demand and infrastructure conditions in southern Louisiana. This forecast does not imply uniform price movements across all US gas markets.

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“The scale of the US LNG position may look like a commercial advantage,” said Kramer. “But as the US moves past one-third of global LNG supply in the early 2030s, buyers are already asking questions about over-reliance on a single supply source. Those questions will only get louder.”

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Background:

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Wood Mackenzie’s forecast of rising Henry Hub prices has been a defining and contested position over the past 18 months, generating sustained debate among utilities, LNG buyers, upstream operators and financial institutions.

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The Horizons report examines the principal risks to the forecast in both directions, including the potential for non-listed and internationally backed operators to accelerate supply, dormant or frontier plays to prove viable at scale, and a material slowdown in AI-driven power demand or global LNG trade growth.

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-ENDS-

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About Wood Mackenzie:

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Wood Mackenzie is the global leader in analytics, insights and proprietary data across the entire energy and natural resources landscape. For over 50 years our work has guided the decisions of the world’s most influential energy producers, utilities companies, financial institutions and governments. Now, with the world’s energy system more complex and interconnected than ever before, sector-specific views are no longer enough. That’s why we’ve redefined what’s possible with Intelligence Connected: the fusion of our unparalleled proprietary data with the sharpest analytical minds, all supercharged by Synoptic AI, to deliver a clear, interconnected view of the entire value chain. Our trusted team of 2,700 experts across 30 countries breaks siloes and connects industries, markets and regions across the globe to empower our customers to identify risk sooner, spot opportunity faster and make every decision with complete confidence.

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