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Donald Trump has stumbled into a position of extraordinary power in the Middle East. Through a combination of Israeli military audacity and his willingness to take risks, Trump has humiliated Iran, proven his ability to rein in Israel, and positioned himself as the only actor who can now impose a postwar settlement. He has leverage over everyone, and he should use it now.
Iran tried to negotiate with the United States as an equal. It hoped to deter Israel with missile threats, proxies, and nuclear brinkmanship. But Israel just proved how hollow that posture was — launching an astonishingly successful preemptive strike on June 13.
Ten days later came something astounding. US B-2 bombers flew deep into Iranian territory and struck nuclear infrastructure directly.
Washington wasn’t just supporting Israel — it was in the fight. And then Trump essentially imposed a cease-fire. Israel stopped. Iran accepted. The war ended not with negotiations but with an American command.
This is military might combined with psychological dominance. Trump effectively used Israel as a proxy to break Iran’s posture — then proved he could rein in his proxy the moment it suited him. For Iran, the implications are brutal. If Israel wants to strike again, it very well might. If Trump wants to stop them, he will.
This is the context in which US-Iran talks will now resume. They must not be open-ended — Iran cannot be allowed to play for time as they did with President Obama. Trump must make clear that the war demonstrated the limits of Iran’s options.
The regime survived, but just barely. Its nuclear and missile programs were mauled. Its proxies have been badly weakened. And its people are more skeptical than ever of a leadership that promised strength and delivered only humiliation.
The terms must be firm, final, and immediate:
1. All uranium enrichment must halt above the 3% civilian threshold allowed under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The carrot is that civilian use should be allowed — it is Iran’s right under the NPT.
2. The missile program must be ended — especially long-range and precision systems that threaten Israel and Arab capitals.
3. All support for regional proxy militias must end. That includes Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Shiite militias in Iraq. These groups are not bargaining chips — they are the core of Iran’s regional aggression. They must go.
Iran may protest, posture, and delay. But it is cornered. The Arab world was largely silent during the Israel-Iran war — a signal of tacit approval. Europe’s main governments, though nervous, largely backed the US-Israel axis. Tehran has few friends, little credibility, and almost no cards left to play.
But the job is only half done. The war in Gaza — at this juncture, pointless, devastating, and politically toxic — must now end. And here, too, Trump has leverage.
Just weeks ago, Netanyahu’s government was under siege at home. Protests filled the streets. The hostage crisis dragged on. His coalition teetered. Then came the Iran strike. It gave him breathing room and a narrative of victory. But it came with a debt, and Trump holds the note.
Trump can now demand something Netanyahu has blocked because of pressure from far-right figures who can bring down his coalition: end the war in Gaza, and do it in a way that creates a path forward.
The plan is clear: The Palestinian Authority must be allowed to return to Gaza. It must come with Arab security backing — likely from Egypt, Jordan, and Gulf partners — and billions in reconstruction aid from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Read the latest on the Israel-Iran conflict:
- Inside ‘Pickaxe Mountain,’ Iran’s secret underground fortress — that may be stashing uranium stockpiles
- 7 Israeli soldiers blown up by Hamas terrorist in deadliest attack on IDF in Gaza in months
- Trump says US-Iran meeting will happen next week — with Tehran’s nuke material buried under ‘30 stories’ of rubble
- Steve Witkoff declares Iran-Israel war ‘over’ after Trump’s cease-fire deal: ‘No one’s shooting at each other’
Hamas must disarm and go into exile. And in return, Trump must deliver the next phase of the Abraham Accords.
Indeed, the Yisrael Hayom newspaper on Thursday reported that Trump already spoke with Netanyahu about ending the Gaza war within two weeks. The report was not confirmed by authorities.
This is where the opportunity becomes historic. Saudi Arabia has signaled that normalization with Israel is possible — but only in the context of serious steps toward Palestinian statehood. With Gaza pacified and the PA in place, Saudi normalization is achievable.
That, in turn, could bring along others: Oman, maybe even Lebanon, under its new political leadership. Syria’s new regime, desperate for international legitimacy because of its jihadist past, has signaled positive intentions as well.
Either way, Netanyahu announced that Israel is working for “dramatic expansion of peace agreements” on Thursday.
Trump could expand the Abraham Accords into a true regional security architecture — uniting Israel, moderate Arab states, and even a weakened Iran under US oversight.
This would reshape the region. Israel would gain unprecedented legitimacy and regional integration. The Palestinians would get governance, reconstruction, and a foothold toward political relevance. Iran would be contained. And the US would restore its position as the indispensable power in the Middle East.
None of this is guaranteed. But all of it is possible — and Trump holds the cards.
Dan Perry led Associated Press coverage in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, including the Israel and Iran bureaus. He publishes Ask Questions Later on Substack.
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