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Coco Gauff pumps her fist during a match at Wimbledon.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
After losing in the first round of two of the last three Wimbledons, it was fair to wonder if Coco Gauff’s game just wasn’t ever going to mesh with the unique conditions at the All England Club.
Not anymore.
It hasn’t been the easiest run to the semifinals, but Gauff has cleared a significant hurdle in her career and now sets her sights on Karolina Muchova on Thursday morning.
Muchova is a slight -124 favorite to win the match at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Wimbledon: Coco Gauff vs. Karolina Muchova odds, picks
It feels like Gauff has been around for ages, but she’s just 22 years old, so it’s not a shock that it’s taken her a bit to get a feel for things at Wimbledon. Grass courts are not common in the United States, so American players need to adjust to the slick conditions, which can vary considerably depending on the weather.
Most players who dominate on the grass lean into a powerful serve, and that’s just not part of Gauff’s game. She can’t dial it up like Aryna Sabalenka or Jessica Pegula to win quick, cheap points, and when she does try to do that, she becomes erratic.
Gauff leads the WTA Tour in double faults this season.
Karolina Muchova of the Czech Republic playing tennis at Wimbledon. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectThat said, it does seem like Gauff has found a winning formula during this run. She’s needed three sets in every match but her first-round victory over Tamara Korpatsch, but that’s to be expected from the Florida native. She can be a roller coaster, especially on the grass, but she’s able to keep herself in matches and then rise to the occasion in big moments.
She did just that against Belinda Bencic and Pegula in the last two rounds.
Muchova’s run to the semis has been much less fussy. The Czech has dropped just one set, and is coming off an impressive sweep of Naomi Osaka in the quarters.
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She is the No. 10 seed in this field, but it must be said that this was a surprising run from Muchova given that she has been bounced in the first round from Wimbledon in each of the last four years.
Both of these players have questions to answer in this matchup. Gauff has never been this far at Wimbledon, and her serve can abandon her at any moment, while Muchova is just 1-3 in Grand Slam semifinals and is still searching for her first major title.
Nerves, inconsistency, and pressure should make this a scrappy one. Back it to go the distance.
The Play: Over 2.5 sets (+110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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