Why Ronaldo, Portugal face most difficult path to winning first World Cup

So far, the 2026 World Cup hasn't been a terrific showing for Portugal, which finished second in Group K standings after entering as the favorite to lead. But after officially securing a spot in the knockout portion of the tournament, Cristiano Ronaldo and company can put any struggles in the past.

That won't come easily, however. After settling for two draws in the group stage, Portugal now faces perhaps the most difficult path to the trophy of any of the top "heavyweight" contenders.

After finishing second in their group, Portugal will first match up against Croatia — but a win there could lead to matchups against top-tier opponents like Spain, Belgium, the United States or France.

Here's a look at the potentially difficult path for Portugal to winning the World Cup after the team settled for five points in the group stage.

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Portugal 2026 World Cup knockout round path

Here's a look at the top opponents who could await Portugal in each round, assuming Portugal and other favorites advance.

Round of 32: Croatia

The first challenger for Portugal, with the knockout stage now here, will be Croatia. On Thursday, July 2, Portugal and Croatia will meet at 7 p.m. ET in Toronto, Canada.

Croatia comes into the match owning two World Cup wins, having defeated Panama and Ghana in Group L action, but falling to England in its opener. Those six points put Croatia just behind England's seven in the group for second place.

Ronaldo and Luka Modric will be facing off as veterans for a chance to advance. And while Portugal will be favored to win this matchup, it's also one of the tougher Round of 32 draws out there. Croatia is older but still talented, currently No. 13 in FIFA Rankings.

Had Portugal beaten Colombia rather than taking a 0-0 tie, Ronaldo and company likely would have faced Ghana in the Round of 32, a much better matchup. Instead, even if Portugal does beat Croatia, plenty of other top teams would remain on the path to the final.

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Round of 16: Spain or Austria

Should Portugal bounce back by beating Croatia, it's likely the team would then face Spain on July 6 in the Round of 16.

Spain claimed seven points in the group stage, beating Saudi Arabia and Uruguay while taking a tie vs. Cape Verde. There's little doubt that Spain is one of the contenders to win it all, from Lamine Yamal to Nico Williams — and for Portugal, that would mean a matchup with plenty of star power by just their second knockout match. As things currently stand, Spain is FIFA's No. 3-ranked team. 

The other possibility would be Austria, which would have to pull off a significant upset in the Round of 32 to reach a matchup with Portugal. 

Quarterfinals: Belgium or United States 

If Portugal reached the quarterfinals, the four possible opponents at that stage include Belgium, the United States, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Senegal.

Of that bunch, the two that stand out are the U.S. and Belgium, favorites to meet in the Round of 16. Belgium, FIFA's No. 11-ranked team, beat New Zealand 5-1 in the group stage and tied vs. both Egypt and Iran. It's been a disappointing World Cup for the squad, but Belgium is still one of the more talented units in the tournament.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is hopeful for a historic run as a host this year. Currently ranked as FIFA's No. 14 team, the Americans looked impressive in wins vs. Paraguay and Australia before a loss to Turkey that didn't carry significant implications. Depth is an issue for the U.S., but for Portugal, a quarterfinals matchup would mean likely playing in a tough environment with the host's fans in attendance.

Unless Bosnia and Herzegovina or Senegal goes on a surprising run, Portugal would hypothetically draw another tough opponent in the quarterfinals.

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Semifinals: France, Germany or Netherlands

The deeper into the bracket we go, the more difficult it is to project who Portugal would face — but if things go as anticipated, Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappe would meet in the World Cup semifinals.

France would have to take down Sweden, then likely Germany and Netherlands, to reach this point, but that's easy to envision for a squad that has long been considered one of the favorites to hoist the trophy. Currently ranked No. 2 by FIFA, France has arguably the most talent of any team in the tournament and won all three group-stage matches.

For Portugal, France would mark yet another heavyweight matchup, and the most difficult yet, on the path to even reach the final.

If France falls to Germany, Netherlands or another team (Paraguay, Sweden, Canada, South Africa, Morocco) along the way, however, Portugal could find somewhat of a break in the semifinals. Netherlands would still be a tough draw, so far on a strong World Cup run, while Morroco and Germany could also be difficult opponents. But if Portugal makes it this far, it should be hoping France isn't the team awaiting.

Finals: Argentina, England or Brazil

Unfortunately for soccer fans, a Messi vs. Ronaldo matchup would have to wait until the World Cup final due to Portugal's failure to top its group standings. Red-hot Argentina is on the opposite side of the bracket to Portugal. And while that would be a highly-anticipated meeting between all-time greats, there are many steps to be taken for Portugal and Argentina before getting there.

Other top contenders on the opposite side of the bracket, should Portugal go on a deep run, include England, Brazil and Mexico.

In some ways, Portugal might feel battle-tested by the time it reached a potential 2026 World Cup final anyway, thanks to the juggernauts on its side of the bracket. But there's a long path to the final still. No team in the bracket may have a more difficult path to the trophy.

Has Portugal won a World Cup?

Only adding to the challenges awaiting Portugal in the knockout round: the country has yet to win a World Cup.

Portugal's best finish at the tournament came in 1966, when it finished in third place. While the country has qualified for the last seven World Cup tournaments, including a fourth-place finish in 2006 and a quarterfinals bid in 2022, it has yet to hoist the trophy.