Why Astros are quietly dangerous in American League pennant race

The Houston Astros have been a .500 team or slightly below for most of the season. 

That's why it's hard to believe they have a chance to earn an automatic berth to the ALDS if they win the AL West and finish with a top-two record in the American League. 

This season, the AL West has been by far the worst division of the six. Not one of the five clubs has a positive run differential. 

Houston's -50 run differential is the sixth-worst in the AL. Still, they have a solid chance to make a deep postseason run, ESPN's David Schoenfield wrote. 

"The starting pitching makes that scenario a little less plausible, although we should point out that the rotation has a 3.15 ERA in September (fourth in the majors) with Hunter Brown and Hayden Wesneski both pitching well," Schoenfield wrote. "Even Cristian Javier has now had three good starts in a row. And Peter Lamber has been the one consistent and healthy starter throughout the season for the Astros." 

Schoenfield notes that Houston's rotation should be its biggest concern going into the postseason. 

It helps to have a dominant closer like Josh Hader and the frontrunner for AL MVP (Yordan Alvarez) in your lineup. 

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"So let's see: dominant closer, the best hitter in the game this season, power, and a rotation that has been mostly awful all season but is peaking at the right time. Consider yourself warned," Schoenfield added. 

Based on the Astros' body of work in the regular season, it's hard to truly feel confident about their postseason chances. 

But this is the same organization that went to seven consecutive AL Championship Series from 2017-23. 

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