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The FIFA World Cup is meant to be a global celebration of football, with nations from all corners of the globe arriving in one place to compete for soccer's ultimate prize.
Unfortunately, the fallout from geopolitical events is often unavoidable, and such is the case ahead of the 2026 tournament to be hosted in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
Three-time Asian champions Iran have qualified for six of the past eight World Cups. Yet their place at the 2026 competition has become uncertain after hosts USA, along with Israel, launched a military attack on the country in early March.
With the World Cup just a few short months away, The Sporting News takes a look at whether it is feasible for Iran to participate in this summer's competition, and who could take their spot in the first-ever field of 48 should they indeed remove themselves from the tournament.
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Will Iran withdraw from the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Iran qualified for the World Cup and were placed in Group G, where they are due to face Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand.
However, there are reports suggesting they have withdrawn from the tournament following the USA and Israel's attack.
Ragip Soylu of Middle East Eye posted on X on March 1 to say that Iranian media was reporting the team had pulled out of the World Cup.
This came after Mehdi Taj, president of Iran's football federation, was quoted as saying that the country's participation in the tournament was "unlikely."
On March 3, President Trump was asked whether Iran would play at the World Cup. He replied: “I really don’t care. I think Iran is a very badly defeated country. They’re running on fumes.” Politico reported Iran was absent from a FIFA team planning event taking place in Atlanta that same day.
The clearest indication that Iran will withdraw came on March 11, when the country's sports minister cited the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the U.S. attacks as a reason the country cannot compete in North America.
"Considering that this corrupt regime has assassinated our leader, under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup," Ahmed Donyamali told Iranian state television. "Our children are not safe and, fundamentally, such conditions for participation do not exist.
"Given the malicious actions they have carried out against Iran, they have forced two wars on us over eight or nine months and have killed and martyred thousands of our people. Therefore, we certainly cannot have such a presence."
Although this did not amount to an official withdrawal, it was the first time a member of the Iranian government had gone on the record regarding World Cup participation.
Donyamali's words rendered Gianni Infantino's latest intervention somewhat mood. The FIFA president claimed he had discussions with President Trump, who "reiterated that the Iranaian team is welcome to comepete" at the World Cup, on March 10.
In an Instagram post, Infantino added: "We all need an event like the FIFA World Cup to bring people together now more than ever, and I sincerely thank the President of the United States for his support, as it shows once again that Football Unites the World."
On March 12, Trump said on social media that while Iran is not being banished from the World Cup, he does not believe it is "appropriate" for them to take part.
"The Iran National Soccer Team is welcome to The World Cup," Trump wrote on Truth Social, "but I really don't believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety."
MORE: Further detail on Iran's potential withdrawal from the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Who could replace Iran at 2026 FIFA World Cup?
If Iran withdraw from the 2026 World Cup, FIFA will almost surely wish to replace them with another nation from the Asian confederation.
There are two candidates from the AFC who could be most competitively eligible for such a position.
Iraq
The most obvious candidate to replace Iran would be Iraq, who are currently slated to participate in the FIFA intercontinental playoff in late March.
Iraq won the AFC World Cup qualifying playoff over UAE by a 3-2 score, which confirmed their place in the intercontinental playoff.
If Iran decide to withdraw in the next week or two, Iraq could be elevated to direct qualification, which would leave a hole in the intercontinental playoff. At that point, UAE would be the likely candidate to be moved into this position. However, this decision would have to be made soon, with the intercontinental playoff set to begin on March 26.
If Iran's decision comes after the intercontinental playoff, then Iraq's result at the intercontinental playoff would likely be finalised, and another nation would have to be chosen.
UAE
UAE lost to Iraq in the AFC playoff match, meaning they are likely behind Iraq in the pecking order.
However, if Iran's decision comes through after Iraq contest the intercontinental playoff, UAE would be in a good position if their Middle Eastern counterparts win the playoff.
If Iraq qualify for the World Cup via the intercontinental playoff in March, then regardless of whether the Lions of Mesopotamia are "elevated" to be Iran's replacement or not, a position would still need to be filled. UAE could then backfill this position, whether it be as Iran's direct replacement while leaving Iraq's position as intercontinental playoff qualifier intact, or whether it be taking Iraq's place as intercontinental qualifier after Iraq is elevated to Iran's position.
Either way, Al-Abyad would reach the 2026 tournament.
UAE also have the added credentials of being the third-place finisher in Iran's AFC qualification third round group. While Iran finished first, qualifying them and second-place Uzbekistan directly to the World Cup, UAE finished third, forcing them to take the playoff route. If Iran were to pull out, FIFA could competitively argue that UAE deserve to go through on this basis.
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