James Madison's loss to Appalachian State on Thursday night was the latest domino to fall in the race for the lone Group of Six spot in the College Football Playoff.
The berth goes to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt conferences in the final College Football Playoff selection committee rankings.
The first committee rankings don't come out until Nov. 3, but they typically follow the polls closely, so it's a safe bet that James Madison was a top contender before its 34-31 loss. The Dukes were just outside the Associated Press Top 25 this week and were second in votes among G6 schools.
Because the G6 includes 70 teams competing for one bid, any loss is major -- especially against other G6 schools. That means James Madison, a member of the Sun Belt Conference, likely is out of the race.
Appalachian State (5-2) might have capitalized on its big win, but the Mountaineers already had losses to North Carolina State and Old Dominion. The Old Dominion loss is a killer -- the Monarchs are just 2-5.
Here are the schools best positioned to benefit most from likely having James Madison out of the way:
Boise State and Oregon State, Pac-12
Boise State (6-1) opened the season with a 34-27 loss at Oregon, but the Broncos have won five straight and are currently the highest-ranked G6 team at No. 21 in the Associated Press Top 25.
The Broncos also have star power -- Dylan Riley is second in the FBS with 166.3 yards rushing per game.
Boise State's wins over Western Michigan and Memphis have held up well. Western Michigan, which nearly beat Michigan in its opener, was the MAC's best hope before its 32-7 loss to Boise State weeks later likely ended its bid. Memphis is clearly a talented team, but the Tigers (6-2) had a killer loss to Tulane last week.
Boise State RB Dylan Riley leads the FBS with 835 rushing yards.
— Underdog CFB (@UnderdogCFB) October 13, 2026Boise State's biggest regular-season challenge remaining appears to be a home game against Oregon State on Nov. 14. The Beavers feature one of the most productive offenses in college football and a Heisman contender in freshman receiver Jesse Legree, who leads the nation in yards receiving and receiving touchdowns.
Should Boise State win out, the Broncos would have a strong chance of getting the bid.
Oregon State (5-2) might have a case if it wins out. The Beavers' only two losses are at No. 14 Houston and at home against No. 8 Texas Tech. They have won five straight while averaging 51 points per game during the streak.
Oregon State was fourth among G6 teams with three votes in this week's AP poll.
New Mexico, North Dakota State and Air Force, Mountain West
New Mexico (5-1) appears to have a shot if things fall the right way. They have a loss, but it was 14-6 at Oklahoma. The Lobos were third among G6 schools in AP votes this week, with six.
New Mexico leads the nation in scoring defense. The Lobos face North Dakota State (6-1), which ranks nationally second in scoring defense, on Saturday. This game would have been even bigger had North Dakota State not lost to UNLV on Oct. 10.
New Mexico plays UNLV on Nov. 14 and Air Force (5-1) on Nov. 28. Wins there could put the Lobos in prime position to make the committee think.
North Dakota State and Air Force could make a case if they beat New Mexico, barring losses in other games.
MORE: New Mexico's nation-leading scoring defense has Lobos in playoff conversation
UTSA, American
The Roadrunners (6-1) have won four straight, and their only loss was a 30-6 setback to Texas. They don't have a big-name opponent the rest of the way, so they'll probably need to win out and get some help to be strongly considered.
