What the data is telling us about fantasy football’s muddled running back committees

Let’s explore the Fantasy Uncertainty Principle. It suggests a fundamental limit to how productive fantasy running backs can be. This limit involves the potential of an NFL team’s running game, the parts that make up that running game, and the volume of work those parts get.

The concept is rooted in Backfield Committee Theory: Neither part can be at peak productive potential at the same time, since the more volume one part gets, the less the other receives. This isn’t a limitation of individual talent but an inherent property of football nature — there is only one ball on the field.

This is the Fantasy Uncertainty Principle — or in street parlance, Common Sense.

Nomenclature aside, that uncertainty exists. The best way to resolve it is to get more data on workload volume, and that comes in the form of more games. We don’t need anyone at peak form, we just want to know how close to peak one can get, and we want that info on as many RBs as we can get.