What Tarik Skubal's elbow surgery means for Tigers contract, free agency

Long before Tarik Skubal has even hit the open market, his free agency has been a major talking point in MLB.

As Skubal has ascended to become a two-time AL Cy Young Award winner and the most dominant left-handed pitcher in baseball, his looming 2026 free agency has been closely watched. Not only has he not signed an extension with the Detroit Tigers, but for years, there has been a growing belief that he could surpass Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million deal for the largest pitcher contract ever.

After a high-profile arbitration case with the Tigers this past offseason, 2026 officially became a contract year for Skubal. But recent news that he will be sidelined with loose bodies in his throwing elbow could have major financial implications.

Here’s how Skubal’s injury could wind up affecting his free agency.

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What Tarik Skubal's elbow surgery means for contract, free agency

One way or another, Skubal is expected to get a whole lot of money in the 2026 offseason. He's cemented himself as a true ace, lifting the Tigers in both the regular season and postseason as a virtual guarantee to shut down an opposing lineup every time he steps on the mound.

Skubal has heavily been expected to land a $400 million-plus offer from some team, whether Detroit or elsewhere, next offseason, which would make him the first $400 million pitcher ever. He's expected to pursue that $400 million mark as a free agent, per ESPN. In 2026 alone, Skubal won his arbitration case to make $32 million and become the the current fifth-highest-paid pitcher in baseball per Spotrac.

At $40 million per year, he’d trail only Zack Wheeler — who intentionally signed a shorter, high-AAV contract — among MLB’s highest-paid pitchers, which is where Skubal belongs. Over 10 years, that’s $400 million.

Now, Skubal’s 2026 arm injury could give teams an opportunity to lower his cost. While he’s expected to return at some point this season, health is always a major concern for starting pitchers — that’s part of the reason there has yet to be a $400 million pitcher. If teams are interested in signing Skubal at a cheaper price, they could attempt to point to his recent injury as a reason for skepticism.

On May 7, Jon Heyman reported that Skubal's surgery "was such a success he could start working out within days" and his original two-month timeline may prove conservative, all positive signs for his return in 2026, when he can still make himself a lot of money.

The way Skubal returns from elbow surgery could determine whether or not he earns the largest pitcher contract ever. If he pitches well, there’s less reason for concern. If he struggles, however, a $400 million deal next offseason could easily fall closer to $300 million.

Another possibility, if Skubal struggles upon his return from injury, is that he winds up taking a shorter-term deal — perhaps even one year — as a “prove it” situation before continuing to pursue a larger payday. But considering he’s already approaching 30, that’s unlikely. The best time for Skubal to land a long-term deal will be next offseason.

At the very least, Skubal’s injury is one of the few red flags teams may see when making offers this winter. If he doesn’t respond well, he may not receive the kind of monster contract once anticipated.

MORE: How long is Tarik Skubal out?

What are 'loose bodies in elbow'

"Loose bodies in the elbow" refers to small pieces of bone or cartilage that have broken off and are lying or floating free within the joint, per the University of Colorado School of Medicine. When that happens, it can cause difficulty bending or rotating the joint.

Loose bodies in an elbow typically won't cause discomfort, but when they do, surgery can be required. 

Tarik Skubal return timeline

ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that Skubal's surgery could require around two-to-three months of recovery.

However, Jon Heyman later reported that Skubal's surgery "was such a success he could start working out within days" and his original two-month timeline may prove conservative.

When is Tarik Skubal a free agent?

Skubal is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after the 2026 season, penciled in as the big fish of the upcoming free-agent class.

Because he's still in his prime as a Cy Young-level arm, Skubal has been anticipated to break the record for the largest pitcher contract in MLB history. He won an arbitration case over the 2025 offseason vs. the Tigers to receive $32 million this season, putting him among the highest-paid pitchers.

Other potential members of the 2026 free-agent class include Freddy Peralta, Bo Bichette, Ozzie Albies and Michael King.

Tarik Skubal WBC controversy

The Tigers were already being very intentional with how they utilized Skubal this season. As one of the most impactful players in baseball, he didn't get to play as deep into the World Baseball Classic as he may have liked.

Skubal was named a member of Team USA alongside Paul Skenes to make an elite 1-2 punch, but news later came that the Tigers had only agreed to Skubal making one start for the U.S.

He pitched against Great Britain in the opening round, then re-joined Detroit at spring training, and the U.S. went on to fall in the WBC final.

MORE: Tarik Skubal's full WBC stats

Tarik Skubal contract details

Skubal is currently playing on a one-year, $32 million deal from his arbitration case with the Tigers this past offseason.

Prior to then, he wasn't making nearly what the other elite starters across MLB are; in 2025, he received $10.15 million, and in 2024, he received $2.65 million, per Spotrac.

Now, Skubal trails only the following starting pitchers in 2026 pay, per Spotrac:

• Zack Wheeler, $42 million
• Jacob DeGrom, $38 million
• Gerrit Cole, $36 million
• Tyler Glasnow, $32.5 million

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Tarik Skubal age

Skubal is 29 years old. He will turn 30 on Nov. 20, 2026, which is around the time he will be hitting free agency.