What's next for Clippers after Kawhi Leonard punishment: How bad is it, and the plan for digging themselves out

The Clippers penalties arising from the league's investigation into Kawhi Leonard's contract were bad. Just how bad were they?

The loss of five draft picks would be enough to cripple any franchise going forward. For Los Angeles, though, the situation is a death blow. Given the current state of their roster, the assets they had at their disposal before the announcement, and their plan going forward, it's going to be ugly for a while at the Intuit Dome. 

Here's why the Clippers are in such dire straits for the future, and what they can do to minimize any further damage. 

MORE: Clippers-Kawhi Leonard probe winners & losers

How will the Clippers look this season?

The immediate impact of the league's punishments won't be too severe. The Clippers should complete their Leonard trade with the Raptors soon, bringing Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick to the team. 

Those two will join some solid veterans in Darius Garland, Rui Hachimura, Max Strus, and others. Rookie Keaton Wagler should be a fun watch. And the duo of Ty Lue and Jeff Van Gundy are among the best in the coaching business.

That group has enough talent to win over 30 games this season. And they showed last year that they could play well in spite of the distraction around the Leonard saga. I don't expect them to tailspin after the news. It will be in subsequent years where the pain is really felt. 

MORE: How Clippers scandal compares to worst punishments in sports history

Clippers future draft picks

The present-day Clippers will be respectable, but they don't have a realistic avenue towards improving their team over the next five years. The loss of those five draft picks effectively takes them completely out of the running to improve their team via trade. They won't be able to draft a star either, unless they hit on one late in the first round. 

The Clippers do still have some of their picks going forward. They'll have one that projects to be in the 20's in 2027, another mediocre first-rounder in 2029, and the Raptors' picks in 2031 and 2033. Critically, none of those picks are eligible to be traded due to the league's Stepien rule. 

Those Raptors picks in 2031 and 2033 may be the team's only hope for salvation. Leonard will be retired by then. There's a chance that Toronto could be in the lottery where, under the league's new rules, anything could happen. 

Where do the Clippers go from here?

Unless Wagler develops into a top-10 player, the Clippers are in purgatory for the next five years. They will be in the middle-to-bottom of the standings, with no way out.  

That doesn't mean that all hope is lost forever. There is a blueprint for how to dig themselves out of this mess. First, they should look to the Timberwolves, who had two of their first-round picks restored for good behavior after they lost five in their own cap circumvention scheme back in 2000.

Minnesota took its punishment on the chin, while Clippers owner Steve Ballmer is going the other way. He seems determined to fight the league in court. That is the wrong strategy to pursue.

Ballmer can try to sue the NBA, but his likelihood of reversing their ruling is as close to zero as you can get. The NBA is a private business. As such, the courts will give deference to Adam Silver's decisions unless they are arbitrary and capricious or otherwise in violation of the league's bylaws.

The first rule of holes is that when you find yourself in one, you should stop digging. The Clippers would do better by trying to get back into the good graces of the league and hoping that some of their picks get restored. 

The other model that the Clippers should study is the 2014 Nets, who had to recover from one of the worst trades in NBA history after they moved three first-round picks and a pick swap in order to acquire Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett at the tail end of their careers. 

That era was a disaster, and the Nets had very few resources in the draft available to rebuild their team. Instead, they used cap space to absorb bad contracts from other teams, getting draft picks in return. They used those picks to draft shrewdly in the back of the first round, getting players like Caris LeVert at pick No. 20 and Jarrett Allen at pick No. 22. And they found overlooked players like Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris to fill out their team, turning Brooklyn into a winning destination that Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving were interested in going to. 

The Clippers can follow that Nets model. They project to have the third-most cap space in the league next summer, with around $54 million to spend. They should use that money in order to take on some of the worst deals in the league, picking up some first-rounders in exchange for getting teams out of their financial messes. 

That strategy won't make the Clippers better in the short term, and it will be a long and slow road ahead. But the Nets showed that it is possible to dig yourself. It took Brooklyn four years to get back on their feet. If Los Angeles plays its cards right, that's a best-case scenario for them. And if they don't face reality, they'll be stuck in purgatory indefinitely.