What Is Trump to Putin? A Harbinger of America’s Collapse.

Opinion|What Putin Really Sees in Trump

The American election results were received with enthusiasm in Moscow. President Vladimir Putin, offering his congratulations, seemed genuinely pleased. But it’s not because Donald Trump is seen as a pro-Russian politician or even one of their own — those illusions faded long ago. Nor is it the prospect of an advantageous peace deal in Ukraine, ruthlessly brokered by Mr. Trump. The first reported call between the two leaders, which the Kremlin denies took place, suggests that the incoming administration will be no pushover.

Instead, the excitement comes from something else. It’s that to many in the Kremlin, a Trump presidency might bring about the collapse of the American state.

The idea that the United States is entering the final stage of its history has been kicking around Russia for some time. For years, it was confined to fringe voices. But since around 2020, figures from the Kremlin have been making the argument, too. Leading the charge was Nikolai Patrushev, a former director of the Federal Security Service and one of Mr. Putin’s key advisers. Widely regarded as Russia’s leading hard-liner, he was among the first to claim that America was on an inexorable path to implosion.

In a 2023 interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the official publication of the Russian government, Mr. Patrushev detailed what that would look like. The United States would split into North and South, with the South moving “toward Mexico, whose lands were seized by Americans in 1848,” he said. “Make no mistake, sooner or later, the southern neighbors of the United States will reclaim the territories taken from them.”

By then, Mr. Putin himself had laid out a similar view of territorial disintegration. “As a former citizen of the former Soviet Union, I’ll tell you the problem with empires: They believe they are so powerful that they can afford minor mistakes,” he said in 2021. “But the problems accumulate, and a moment comes when they are no longer manageable. The United States is confidently, firmly marching down the same path as the Soviet Union.” This still seems to represent Mr. Putin’s fundamental assessment of the country. He is convinced that America is nearing its end.

For proof, advisers and officials have turned to Hollywood. This year, high-ranking Russian officials eagerly watched the American film “Civil War,” starring Kirsten Dunst. (Curiously, it was released in Russia under the title “The Fall of the Empire,” though the film contains no such imperial theme.) From the Russian elite’s perspective, the movie — which depicts California and Texas seceding, with bloodshed erupting across the nation — reflects how Americans see their near future.