Week 12 college football pool picks, grid projections and expert CFB predictions for Saturday pick'em games

Where is the best chance for an upset that would alter the College Football Playoff picture in Week 12? 

According to the PoolGenius college football data grid, you're going to have to stay up late to find out. Kansas travels to No. 7 BYU at 10:15 p.m. ET game on Saturday. The Data Grid gives the Cougars – who are 9-0 this season – a 58.3% chance to win. Will the Jayhawks pull off another shocker that shakes up the Big 12? 

The Week 12 schedule also features No. 6 Tennessee at No. 11 Georgia in a battle of SEC contenders trying to stay in the CFP hunt. The Bulldogs have a 75% chance to win, according to the Grid, which would add the Volunteers to the heap of two-loss teams in the SEC. 

Those are the best games in our Week 12 picks involving teams in the AP Top 25. 

Throughout the 2024 season, Sporting News is partnering with PoolGenius to provide the best-in-class pool strategy tips, expert quick picks and updated data grids all with one goal in mind: helping you win.

Not only does the PoolGenius college football data grid project winners for every game, it also shows the biggest differences between their model and the betting public, giving you the chance to find hidden opportunities across every single game on the schedule.

College football Week 12 picks against the spread

Saturday, Nov. 16 

• No. 3 Texas (-15) at Arkansas (12 p.m., ABC) 

The Razorbacks are 1-2 ATS as a home underdog this season – and that includes blowout losses to LSU and Ole Miss. Texas ranks second in the FBS in total defense (251.0), and that should help Quinn Ewers – who had five TD passes last week – settle in on the road. Arkansas allowed 694 total yards to Ole Miss, and the Longhorns are just as dangerous. 

Pick: Texas wins 41-20 and COVERS the spread.

PoolGenius pick: Texas

• No. 25 Tulane (-6.5) at Navy (12 p.m., ESPN2) 

The Green Wave rank fourth in the FBS with an offense that averages 41.0 points per game under first-year coach Jon Sumrall. Tulane averages 227.8 rushing yards per game behind Makhi Hughes (1,209 yards, 13 TDs). Navy snapped a two-game losing streak last week, and it is 2-1 S/U as a home underdog under coach Brian Newberry. This should be an exciting game. 

Pick: Tulane wins 34-24 and COVERS the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Tulane

• No. 2 Ohio State (-30.5) at Northwestern (12 p.m., BTN) 

The Buckeyes and Wildcats play at Wrigley Field – another wrinkle to the Big Ten schedule. Northwestern averages 19.2 points per game, and that is not going to work against the Buckeyes, who rank first in the FBS in total defense (250.8 ypg.) and second in scoring defense (10.7 ppg.). Ohio State has won the last 10 meetings by an average of 28.1 points per game. Will Howard will throw for multiple TDs in his eighth straight game, and the Buckeyes will not peek ahead to Indiana. 

Pick: Ohio State wins 38-7 and COVERS the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Ohio State

MORE: SN's bowl projections entering Week 12

• No. 13 Clemson (-10) at Pitt (12 p.m., ESPN) 

The Panthers have lost two of their last three games, and they have managed just 101 rushing yards per game in that stretch. The Tigers have allowed less than 100 yards in four of their last five games – the anomaly being the loss to Louisville. Pitt has to find some offense, and Clemson needs to be more efficient in the passing attack with Cade Klubnik, who is 49 of 80 for an average of 214.5 yards the last two weeks. The Panthers won the last meeting 27-17 at Acrisure Stadium on Oct. 23, 2021. 

Pick: Clemson wins 31-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Clemson 

• Utah at No. 18 Colorado (-10) (12 p.m., Fox) 

How far is Colorado going to take this run under second-year coach Deion Sanders? Shedeur Sanders leads the Big 12 in completion percentage (72.9%) and passing TDs (24), but the Utes have the top defense in the Big 12. It's a good strength-on-strength matchup, and Utah will try to play spoiler after an emotional loss to BYU. Sophomore Brandon Rose needs to be more efficient in his second start, and Utah will have enough success on the ground against a Colorado run defense that allows 150.7 yards per game to keep it close. 

Pick: Colorado wins 27-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

PoolGenius pick: Colorado 

• No. 21 LSU (-4.5) at Florida (3:30 p.m., ABC) 

The Tigers and Gators each suffered blowout losses in Week 11, which makes this SEC rivalry a little more unpredictable. Will DJ Lagway (hamstring) return for the Gators? LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier leads the SEC in passing attempts and completions, and that will wear on a Florida's pass defense, which ranks 13th in the SEC at 234.1 yards per game. Florida has won its last two home games and is 2-2 ATS as a single-digit underdog. LSU still has to show up. 

Pick: LSU wins 28-18 and COVERS the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: LSU

• No. 3 Penn State (-28.5) at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS) 

This is part of a brutal schedule for Purdue, who has already been shut out 35-0 by Oregon and 45-0 by Ohio State. Penn State is in the beauty contest portion of the schedule, and the defense allows just 14 points per game. Penn State has scored more than 35 points in just one game this season – and that was against Kent State. Look for the Nittany Lions to put a late TD on the board and get the cover and take advantage of a Boilermakers team that averages 9.2 points per game at home against FBS teams. 

Pick: Penn State wins 42-7 and COVERS the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Penn State

• No. 22 Louisville (-20) at Stanford (3:30 p.m., ACC Network) 

Stanford had a bye week, but they are stuck in a six-game losing streak where they have allowed 41 points per game. Louisville also had a bye week, and the Cardinals are 3-1 S/U on the road this season – with the only loss coming at Notre Dame. Louisville also is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite, and that is a lot of points. We're going to trust the Cardinals to jump out to a quick lead with Isaac Brown (800 yards, 7 TDs) — who averages 7.5 yards per carry this season.  

Pick: Louisville wins 42-21 and COVERS the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Louisville 

• Boston College at No. 14 SMU (-14.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN) 

The Mustangs are in front of the ACC race, and Kevin Jennings leads the conference with 15.0 yards per completion. The Eagles will have a challenge slowing down an offense that ranks second in the ACC at 40.1 points per game. Boston College has allowed 34.7 points per game in its last three games. This feels like a game where the over will be safe. BC beat SMU in the Fenway Bowl 23-14 to close last season. 

Pick: SMU wins 38-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.  

PoolGenius pick: SMU

• Virginia at No. 8 Notre Dame (-23) (3:30 p.m., NBC) 

The Irish are steam-rolling through opponents, and they have outscored four ACC opponents by a combined total of 163-47 this season. Virginia snapped a three-game losing streak against Pitt last week, but they might struggle to move the football against an Irish defense that has forced 11 turnovers and allowed just 260 yards per game in its last four wins. The Irish are 2-2 ATS when favored by 20 points or more, and they are 4-0 ATS against ACC opponents. 

Pick: Notre Dame wins 42-17 and COVERS the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Notre Dame 

• No. 24 Missouri at No. 23 South Carolina (-13) (4:15 p.m., SEC Network) 

South Carolina is one of the hottest teams in the SEC. The Gamecocks are on a three-game win streak, and they have allowed just 12 points per game in victories against Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. Missouri quarterback Brady Cook (ankle, hand) did not play last week, and the Tigers have been blown out twice on the road this season. Still, these are ranked teams. Should the spread be that high? Look for the Tigers to put up more of a fight on the road. Missouri has won the last five meetings in the series. 

Pick: South Carolina wins 26-18 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: South Carolina 

• No. 13 Boise State (-13.5) at San Jose State (7 p.m., CBS Sports Network) 

First-year coach Ken Niumatalolo has done an outstanding job with the Spartans this season – who are 6-3 and have not lost at home. Can they slow down Ashton Jeanty, who had 167 yards against the Spartans last season? The run defense allows just 3.6 yards per carry this year. The last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 14 points or less. San Jose State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog. Can they pull through one more time?  

Pick: Boise State wins 35-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Boise State

• Arizona State at No. 20 Kansas State (-8.5) (7 p.m., ESPN) 

This is a key game in the Big 12 race, and the question is whether the Sun Devils will have running back Cam Skattebo (shoulder), who missed last week's game against UCF. The Wildcats had a bye week and have no margin for error in the Big 12 race. Kansas State is 4-0 S/U at home, and Avery Johnson has nine TDs and just two interceptions at home this season. The Sun Devils' two losses are on the road, and they have never played in Manhattan. If Skattebo is out, that is a tough ask. 

Pick: Kansas State wins 31-21 and COVERS the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Kansas State 

• No. 1 Oregon (-14) at Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., NBC) 

This is Oregon's last cross-country game and a chance to get closer to a Big Ten championship berth. Wisconsin's best hope is to keep the ground game going as long as possible to keep the Dillon Gabriel-led Ducks off the field. Gabriel has a 75.2% competition percentage and 172 passer rating on the road this season. Oregon has covered in two-time zone road games against Purdue and Michigan. Look for the offense to do the game – even against an upset-minded Camp Randall Stadium crowd.

Pick: Oregon wins 34-17 and COVERS the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Oregon 

• No. 6 Tennessee at No. 11 Georgia (-9) (7:30 p.m., ABC) 

Which Georgia team shows up? The one that beat Texas, the one that overpowered Florida in the second half or the one that stumbled at Ole Miss? The Bulldogs have committed three turnovers in each of their last three games, and Tennessee has not given up more than 19 points in a game this season. This could be a signature victory for Iamaleava, and the Vols have a chance to score a victory in a series that has not been close. Dylan Sampson – who leads the SEC with 1,129 rushing yards and 20 TDs – will be the key. 

Pick: Georgia wins 26-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Georgia

• New Mexico State at No. 15 Texas A&M (-40) (7:45 p.m., SEC Network) 

The Aggies are 2-7, but they are 3-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog, and that includes three 20-plus point spreads. Texas A&M lost running back Le'Veon Moss for the season, but they will be able to get what they want on the ground with Marcel Reed and Amari Daniels. This is a get-in, get-out game. Texas A&M is 0-3 ATS when favored by 20 points or more. That is a lot of points, but the Aggies are going to come out looking to make a statement against a defense that allows 204.8 rushing yards per game. 

Pick: Texas A&M wins 49-7 and COVERS the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Texas A&M 

• No. 19 Washington State (-13) at New Mexico (9:30 p.m., FS1) 

This line has dropped a half point. The Lobos have an effective running game with quarterback Devon Dampier (872 yards, 13 TDs) and Eli Sanders (834 yards, 8 TDs). That will be a test for the Cougars and dual-threat quarterback John Mateer, and the Cougars will engage in a shootout on the road. The Lobos' last four games have been decided by 11 points or less, and Bronco Mendenhall is looking for a signature game. This will be a close one. 

Pick: Washington State wins 35-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

PoolGenius pick: Washington State

• Kansas at No. 7 BYU (-3.5) (10:15 p.m., ESPN) 

The Cougars continue to lead a charmed life in Big 12 play – and they return home against a rejuvenated Kansas team. BYU lives off turnovers. The Cougars have a plus-10 turnover ratio in conference play. The Jayhawks have committed just four turnovers in their last four games, and they are 2-2 S/U in that stretch. Kansas also is 0-4 S/U on the road. This is going to be a trendy upset pick, but we're not quite there. 

Pick: BYU wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread.

PoolGenius pick: BYU