Venezuela Oil Output to Jump 50% Over Next Decade, Enverus Says

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(Bloomberg) — Venezuela’s return to growth in the global oil market following the US capture of long-time leader Nicolas Maduro is forecast to boost crude output by roughly 50% over the coming decade, according to industry consultant Enverus.

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Production is expected to reach about 1.5 million barrels a day by 2035. The outlook by Enverus, one of the oil industry’s top forecasting firms, is among the first to analyze a post-Maduro oil landscape for the Caribbean nation, home to some of the world’s biggest crude reserves.

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President Donald Trump has called for US oil companies to spend at least $100 billion to revive the energy industry in Venezuela, but some executives worry conditions won’t permit a speedy return.

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Enverus sees the potential for increased output, though. If political and investment conditions improve, Enverus envisions a high-case scenario of 3 million barrels a day total output from Venezuela by 2035.

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Venezuela’s output has fluctuated at levels most recently around nearly 1 million barrels per day, well below the 1970s peak of close to 4 million barrels. A resurgence would require companies to rebuild or replace abandoned rigs, leaky pipelines and fire-ravaged equipment. Oil executives also want legal frameworks and guarantees for their investments and security of their employees. 

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Trump convened with nearly 20 industry representatives at the White House last week to discuss oil operations in Venezuela. Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Darren Woods told Trump at the meeting that the South American country is currently “uninvestable,” echoing warnings already issued by some oil industry leaders and analysts. Still, Woods expressed confidence the Trump administration could deliver the legal and regulatory reforms needed for any future investment. 

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Exxon’s arch-rival Chevron Corp. remains, for now, the only major international oil company operating in Venezuela.

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While producers have expressed that hard work remains before major new investments can get underway, oil traders and US refiners are rushing to position for access to Venezuelan crude. Trump has said Venezuela will relinquish as much as 50 million barrels of its oil for the US to sell, and trading houses Trafigura Group and Vitol Group are readying to move the crude.

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An extra 50 million barrels would represent one of the largest unexpected supply flows in years.

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Enverus expects that the added barrels won’t greatly impact market pricing for Brent, the global crude benchmark, amid a glut forecast for this year that’s expected to give way to supply shortfalls later this decade. 

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“Even with accelerated sanctions relief, we still see 1–2 million barrels per day of global oversupply in the first half of 2026 and limited incremental volumes from Venezuela,” Al Salazar, head of macro research at Enverus, said in a statement. 

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“Long-term global oil balances are projected to face a deficit of 2 million barrels per day by 2035, creating space for Venezuela’s incremental supply without materially impacting prices,” Enverus said. 

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