USMNT vs. Jamaica prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for CONCACAF Nations League second leg

After a nervy but gritty 1-0 victory on the road in Kingston, the USMNT hopes to make good on that early aggregate advantage as they host Jamaica in the second leg of their Nations League quarterfinal from St. Louis on Monday.

While Ricardo Pepi opened the scoring just seven minutes in, the lead was uncomfortable multiple times throughout the game, with Matt Turner saving a first-half penalty to keep the Reggae Boyz at bay.

Now back home and on a much more professional pitch, Mauricio Pochettino hopes to usher the U.S. into the semifinal.

The Sporting News breaks down the second leg of this quarterfinal tie and makes predictions based on past results as well as other contributing factors.

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

USMNT vs. Jamaica prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: USA to win (-260 on BetMGM)
• Score prediction: USA 2-1 Jamaica

The United States gritted out a one-goal victory in Kingston on a truly awful playing surface, so there's no reason they can't match or better that result at home.

In all honesty, the USMNT didn't look the better team by much, if at all, in the first leg. Jamaica have been a true pain in the rear for the USMNT as 24 of the last 33 matches between these two teams since 1988 have been either drawn or won by a single goal.

Yet as they push forward with a host of injuries to work around, Mauricio Pochettino has certainly brought a renewed sense of organization and structure which instills confidence that the Argentine has the team on the right track as they prepare for the 2026 World Cup. Despite the absence of numerous regular starters and Pochettino's insistence on wasting Yunus Musah out wide, the return of Tim Weah from suspension will bring enough of a boost to give the U.S. the edge required to emerge victorious.

USMNT vs. Jamaica match facts

• Date: Monday, November 18, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
• Location: Allianz Arena (St. Louis, Missouri)
• Referee: TBD
• Last meeting: Jamaica 0-1 USA (Nov. 14, 2024 | Nations League)

USMNT vs. Jamaica best bet

• Pick: Both teams to score — Yes
• Odds: -120 (BetMGM)

We were highly unfortunate not to come through with both teams to score in our first-leg predictions, as Matt Turner saved a Jamaica penalty and the Reggae Boyz were unable to find the net the rest of the way despite looking dangerous.

With Jamaica now needing to generate a comeback, it's absolutely plausible to see them take a few more risks in the final third in the hopes of snatching an upset result. They troubled the U.S. repeatedly with long balls over the top of the American defense, and it's likely that Steve McClaren will hope to deploy that strategy again to generate some attacking presence.

USMNT vs. Jamaica prop bet

• Pick: Ricardo Pepi anytime goal scorer
• Odds: +140 on BetMGM

While Christian Pulisic is the most in-form U.S. attacking player at the moment, Ricardo Pepi isn't far behind. The PSV man has been sensational despite a lack of playing time, stuck behind Luuk de Jong at the club level but managing to find the net at every possible opportunity afforded to him.

As Jamaica spend most of their time blanketing Pulisic out wide, the American star has often had to rely on a more creative role, feeding teammates in front of net like his sparkling assist to Pepi for the only goal of the first leg on Thursday. That's given Pepi added space to make runs in behind and get on the end of set-piece deliveries, as he's excelled at of late.

Back Pepi to find the net again against an opponent he's had good fortune against, scoring a brace against the Reggae Boyz in just his third cap before netting days ago in the first leg.