USA vs. Guatemala prediction, odds, betting tips, and best bets for USMNT in Gold Cup semifinals 2025

The United States will contest for a spot in the 2025 Gold Cup final as they meet Guatemala in St. Louis on Wednesday.

Looking to put themselves back on top of CONCACAF's championship competition and supplant defending champions Mexico, the USMNT has one more step to take for a potential final against their border rivals.

Despite thumping defeats in the pre-tournament friendlies, the U.S. has looked impressive through the Gold Cup itself against continental competition. Mauricio Pochettino's side won their group with three victories in three matches before managing to squeak by Costa Rica in the quarterfinals on a penalty shootout behind Matt Freese's heroics.

Guatemala qualified for the knockout stage by finishing second in Group C behind Panama and then upsetting Canada in the quarterfinals in a penalty shootout of their own. Rubio Rubin, a former USMNT international, scored the equalizer for Guatemala with 20 minutes remaining.

MORE: Predicted lineups, team news, and latest injury updates ahead of USA vs. Guatemala

USA vs. Guatemala prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: USA (-360 on DraftKings)
• Score prediction: USA 4-1 Guatemala

The United States has done well this Gold Cup handling opponents who are truly inferior, having blasted Trinidad & Tobago 6-0 in the opener while beating Haiti and Saudi Arabia handily on the run of play, even if the scoreline doesn't reflect the domination.

Even the shootout victory over Costa Rica was largely dominated by the USMNT, who conceded twice on individual errors to let their opponents hang around.

The U.S. has historically pummeled Guatemala, winning four of their past five meetings by a combined 17-1 scoreline, only suffering defeat in the other during a 2016 World Cup qualifier on the road in Guatemala, a result which the U.S. avenged appropriately four days later with a 4-0 win at home.

Expect the United States to find a way through this match comfortably as long as they maintain their composure and continue to build as a unit as has been the theme this summer.

USA vs. Guatemala match facts

• Date: Wednesday, July 2, 2025
• Kickoff Time: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
• Location: Energizer Park (St. Louis, MO)
• Referee: TBD
• Last meeting: USA 4-0 Guatemala (Mar. 29, 2016 | World Cup qualifying)

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

USA vs. Guatemala best bet

• Pick: Both teams to score — YES
• Odds: +120 (DraftKings)

While we expect the United States to win this match, the U.S. has also been extremely error-prone this summer against all opposition. While they managed to keep clean sheets against Trinidad & Tobago, who were terrible all tournament, and Saudi Arabia, who sold out defensively, they were below standards defensively in their other matches.

The U.S. made countless errors in the pre-tournament friendlies and even conceded cheap goals to Haiti and Costa Rica, as well.

Guatemala, meanwhile, can score when given chances. They put up three goals on Guadeloupe, found the net against Jamaica and Canada, and were only blanked when rotating the squad against Panama.

USA vs. Guatemala prop bet

• Pick: USA over 6.5 total corners
• Odds: +100

The United States have made wide play a big part of their approach, especially when opponents look to take away Malik Tillman's buildup through the middle of the pitch.

They won nine corners against Costa Rica while battling to draw level or take the lead against a team they expected to be in front of, bagged six against Haiti, and 10 against Trinidad & Tobago in a game they completely dominated. The only game in the Gold Cup in which they failed to pick up corners was against Saudi Arabia, who completely sold out defensively.

Guatemala, meanwhile, are happy to give up corners as long as the opponent doesn't have space through the middle. They allowed nine to 10-man Canada, eight against Guadeloupe, and seven against Panama.