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(Bloomberg) — Risks to the Irish economy from US policy changes including tariffs have lowered since the beginning of 2025, according to Goodbody stockbrokers.
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“The fog appears to be lifting on the major policy issues that threatened Ireland’s economic model, namely the imposition of tariffs and potential changes to corporate tax policy,” a report by chief economist Dermot O’Leary said.
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Donald Trump’s administration has repeatedly singled out Ireland, claiming the multinational hub runs a surplus at the US’s expense and has vowed to re-shore the profits and jobs of American companies based there. It has exacerbated concerns in Dublin about its future corporate tax intake.
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The domestic economy is still anticipated to grow, albeit at a slower pace, 2.3% in 2026, according to the Irish central bank. Meanwhile, Goodbody forecasts 3.2% modified domestic demand growth in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. MDD is a more accurate measure of Ireland’s economy, as it strips out multinational sector activity.
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Job announcements from Ireland’s foreign direct investment agency, the IDA, are down 16% year on year, the broker warned. The Goodbody analysis caveated that its unclear if the weakness reflects multinationals’ unwillingness to make Irish investments public or a broader slowing of FDI into Ireland.
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Ireland also still awaits the outcome of the Section 232 investigation into the pharmaceutical sector, a risk that Goodbody says has ebbed since a 15% US tariff cap on European Union goods was agreed.
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“With short-term risks reducing, Ireland must address medium-term threats to the competitiveness of the Irish economy by focusing its efforts on the efficient delivery of housing, energy and transport infrastructure,” the report added.
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