US Navy blockade has caused Iran’s oil exports to crater — and could finally destabilize regime: expert

Iran’s oil exports have dropped to nearly zero under the renewed US naval blockade, according to analysis from a former senior US Treasury official — who predicts that the economic impacts could hit the elite and destabilize the regime within two to three months.

Iran’s ability to ship oil out of the Strait of Hormuz to offset its current economic woes has hit a wall under the new blockade, with little to no activity seen at its Kharg Island hub, according to recent satellite images.

As Iran and the US attempt to use economic pressures to see who will blink first, Miad Maleki, who served in the Treasury under President Trump and Joe Biden, said Tehran’s regime will finally run out of room to maneuver this fall.

“The blockade has exposed Iran’s biggest economic vulnerability,” said Maleki, who now works at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

“Iran’s oil clock is running down and the real fiscal shock is going to hit in the fall when all their payments come due,” he added.

Iran notably pays its troops, government employees, security forces and industrial workers in cycles, with about 60% of the money coming from its oil exports, Maleki said.

If its exports continue to be hamstrung in the next cycle, the regime will have few options to shield its soldiers and elites from the economic shock.

While the regime has proven that it can endure economic pains suffered by everyday citizens, its attitude will likely change once members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the wealthy elite start complaining, Maleki said.

Trump, who has previously boasted that Iran has no money to pay its troops, signaled that he would maintain full economic pressures on Iran.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also threatened more penalties to come for the Islamic republic.

Bessent warned that the so-called Operation Economic Fury would roll out additional measures after already taking increasingly aggressive actions to sanction money-changers, cryptocurrency and other sources of revenue for Iran.

The goal is be to hit Iran with “economic isolation like the world has never seen before,” he told  Newsmax’s Rob Schmitt last week.

Iran, meanwhile, believes it can outlast the US in a game of economic chicken as the war has also taken its toll on America’s economy and created some backlash against the president.

Oil prices have remained stubbornly high as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, hitting about $90 per barrel on Monday.

The average price of gas has also remained above $4 per gallon in the US in recent weeks, according to AAA.