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(Bloomberg) — US natural gas futures swung between slight gains and losses as traders weighed a cold shift in weather forecasts, indicating higher demand for the heating and power-plant fuel in the coming weeks, against falling oil prices.
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US gas futures have been following oil futures since the war broke out in the Middle East. The conflict spurred rising global energy prices, triggering financial inflows into baskets of energy and commodities, regardless of whether the market for each product is fundamentally affected by the war. US gas in the short term is largely insulated from an overseas supply shock, given US liquefied natural gas export terminals are already operating near maximum capacity.
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“This week for US natural gas may return to a more normal, fundamental view with US natgas breaking away and lower from the broader world crude and European natural gas issues,” said Darrell Fletcher, managing director of commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets.
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- Futures for April delivery -1.3c, or -0.4%, to $3.118/mmbtu on Nymex, as of 9:43am ET
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Weather:
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- Forecasts shifted slightly colder, with below-average temperatures expected across the Southeast and Midwest through March 20: Commodity Weather Group
- Above-average temperatures were expected across the Western half of the US through March 25
- See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA
- Click here for two-week temperature forecasts for the U.S.
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Daily BNEF Gas Data:
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- Lower-48 dry gas production on Monday ~112.5 bcf/day, or +4.9% y/y
- Lower-48 total gas demand on Monday ~92.8 bcf/day, or +21.1% y/y
- Dry gas exports to Mexico on Monday ~5.1 bcf/day, or -22% w/w
- Lowest since Dec. 25, 2024
- Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals on Monday ~20.3 bcf/day, or +8.8% w/w
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Gas Market News:
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- European Gas Follows Oil Higher as Strikes Continue in Mideast
- LNG WRAP: Asia Spot Prices Climb to $20 as Iran War Continues
- New US LNG Plant FID Will Cut Into Qatar’s Market Share: React
- Starmer Says UK Won’t Be Drawn Into Iran War After Trump Ask (1)
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English (US)