US Jobs Report Takes Center Stage: Here’s What You Need to Know

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(Bloomberg) — In a week chock full of economic data, Tuesday’s jobs report will take center stage for investors.

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Nonfarm payrolls probably grew 50,000 in November, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The unemployment rate is seen clocking in at 4.5%, extending a months-long upward climb to the highest level since 2021.

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The report will not only offer a much-anticipated look at the current state of the US labor market but also lay the groundwork for the path of interest rates next year. 

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Unfortunately, it’s not your typical jobs report. Thanks to the government shutdown, there’s more uncertainty — and quirks — around the figures than usual.

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Here’s what you need to know:

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What’s Included?

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In addition to November payrolls, the report will include key statistics informed by the monthly survey of households, like the unemployment rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics extended the collection period for the month to allow adequate time to gather the data in the wake of the government shutdown.

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However, the BLS couldn’t retroactively collect such data for October, so the statistics won’t be published as a result. The agency canceled the October jobs report last month, and said it would release those payrolls figures in conjunction with the November data. 

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Since many businesses retain their records and report payroll numbers electronically, BLS was able gather this data. 

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Payroll Figures

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Jobs figures have been particularly bumpy in recent months, swinging between declines and solid growth. That’s unlikely to change with Tuesday’s report. 

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Following a stronger-than-expected increase in September employment, some economists forecast payrolls to swing negative in October as tens of thousands of government workers who accepted the Deferred Resignation Program fell off payrolls after Sept. 30. 

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The Office of Personnel Management said about 144,000 took that offer. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists expect that to drag payrolls down by 70,000 in October and an additional 10,000 in November.

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Most economists, however, expect November payrolls to be positive. That said, estimates range from minus 20,000 to 127,000. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, expects health care and private educational services to drive job growth in the month. 

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Unemployment Rate

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While the BLS won’t publish an October unemployment rate, economists anticipate the November figure will come in higher than a September reading of 4.4%.

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The jobless rate has climbed in each of the three months through September amid a sluggish hiring environment and an uptick in workforce participation. Job-cut announcements have also jumped lately, and a measure of layoffs in October rose to the highest level since early 2023.

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What Bloomberg Economics Says…

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“There won’t be an unemployment reading for October, and the November data were collected later than normal. That could introduce what Fed Chair Jerome Powell called ‘technical’ issues, such as problems with seasonality adjustment.”