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Some European governments think it’s all but inevitable the US will deploy ground troops, despite the high risk of casualties, according to a diplomat familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive subjects.
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On Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in France after Group of Seven meetings that the war against Iran would not be a prolonged conflict and that the US could achieve its objectives without using ground troops.
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Iran’s government believes there’s a high likelihood Trump will attempt to take over Kharg Island, the Persian Gulf site from which Iran sends most of its oil exports, according to an official from the Islamic Republic, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
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Military analysts said that aside from Kharg Island, the US could try to take control of the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to reopen the vital waterway to oil and gas tankers and container ships. It could also send special forces to retrieve Iran’s roughly 440 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium, the whereabouts of which have been a mystery to nuclear inspectors since the US and Israel last bombed Iran in June. All options would be exceptionally risky for US troops.
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Publicly, Iranian officials remain defiant and said Trump is backing down from threats in order to lower energy prices.
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Global stocks are experiencing their biggest monthly drop since 2022, with the selloff continuing on Friday. Bonds extended losses on fears of rising prices. The OECD has sharply increased its inflation forecast for Group of 20 economies this year to 4%, with an even higher pace in the US.
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On Thursday, Iranian media indicated the country was still awaiting a response after rejecting a US proposal to end the war. The Iranian government has demanded certain guarantees in addition to its request to control Hormuz, including that the US and Israel won’t resume attacks in the future and the payment of war reparations.
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Iran also wants an end to the war on all fronts, a likely reference to Israel’s parallel war against the Tehran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.
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Trump has said any peace agreement must prohibit Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon or enriching radioactive material for civilian purposes. The US plan also stipulates that the Islamic Republic can only have a reduced missile arsenal for self-defense only, according to people familiar with the matter. Iran would get sanctions relief in return.
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Reopening the Hormuz strait is key for Trump, with the waterway effectively closed since the start of the war. Normally, one fifth of the world’s supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas flow through the passage.
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In the US, pump prices have risen to almost $4 a gallon on average, which could hurt Trump’s Republican party ahead of midterm elections in November.
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Iranian lawmakers are drafting a bill to impose a transit toll in Hormuz, according to the Fars news agency, underscoring the country’s confidence it can keep some form of control on the strait’s traffic. It’s already charging some ships millions of dollars for safe passage, Bloomberg reported this week.
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More than 4,500 people have been killed in the conflict so far, according to governments and non-governmental agencies. Around three-quarters of fatalities have been in Iran, while almost 1,100 people have died in Lebanon, where more than a million people have been displaced. Dozens of people have been killed in Israel and Arab Gulf states.
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—With assistance from Catherine Lucey.
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English (US)