US Inflation to Pick Up on More Tariff Pass-Through

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Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

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Asia

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A slew of data from Japan and China will be the focus, with key growth and trade indicators from Malaysia to India also in the spotlight.

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It begins Monday, when China releases trade figures which will give the latest read of the impacts of US tariffs and potential frontloading of shipments. 

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The next day, numbers for China’s June new home sales, retail sales and unemployment provide a snapshot of consumers, while second-quarter gross domestic product is forecast at a slower 5.3%, and industrial production figures are set to show the overall health of the economy and a key driver of it.

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In Japan, core machine orders and final May industrial production figures are out Monday and are expected to underscore a slowdown in activity. Thursday’s trade data is expected to also be weak. 

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Inflation figures on Friday will highlight the challenge facing Japan’s central bank, with national consumer price data for June set to show the headline rate slipping to 3.3%.

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Growth and trade will be key themes across the region. India reports exports for June on Tuesday, while inflation is seen cooling in data out Monday. Malaysia releases second quarter GDP figures and export data after a weak May. 

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Singapore likely notched a 0.8% pace of growth in the second quarter, while South Korea’s export and import trade price weakness may continue into June amid weaker demand. 

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Elsewhere, Indonesia’s central bank is expected to cut its key interest rate.

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Europe, Middle East, Africa

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The week’s regional highlight will be the gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20, the second such meeting since South Africa took over the rotating presidency from Brazil. 

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The event will again be overshadowed by US tariff threats and the absence of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The world’s largest economy has expressed displeasure with the host’s theme of “Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability,” as well as some of its foreign policies.

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Meanwhile, the UK will remain in the focus for markets amid heightened concern about its public finances and after a poor growth number for May, released on Friday. 

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On Tuesday, Mansion House speeches by Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will draw attention. 

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Inflation data for June is released the following day, with economists predicting an outcome stubbornly stuck above 3% for the headline measure, and the services gauge weakening only slightly, to 4.6%. Policymakers may take more reassurance from labor-market numbers on Thursday, which are set to show pay pressures weakening noticeably. 

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In the euro area, industrial production on Tuesday, along with Germany’s ZEW index of investor confidence, will be among the highlights. Export numbers from the region will be published the following day, with Switzerland’s data due on Thursday. Each may reveal disruption to trade from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

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Aside from the G-20 meeting, few appearances by European Central Bank policymakers are on the schedule. The governors of Croatia and France will be among those speaking.

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In Israel on Tuesday, data will probably show that inflation remained steady at 3.1% last month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That’s still above the country’s official target of 1% to 3%, and may ensure the central bank remains cautious about easing.