US Inflation Gauges Likely Diverged Before War in Iran

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Statistics Canada will release February jobs data after January’s roughly 25,000-job loss and a 6.5% unemployment rate flattered by falling participation. US tariffs may keep weighing on hiring, while slower immigration constrains labor-force growth. 

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January’s trade report will show whether Canada’s deficit kept narrowing and if an export rebound led by gold shipments to non-US markets persisted.

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Elsewhere, Chinese inflation, Japanese wage numbers, UK gross domestic product, German factory orders and Mexican consumer prices may be among the highlights.

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Click here for what happened last week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

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Asia

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Asia’s policymakers head into the week facing a fresh geopolitical shock — and the risk of an energy price surge — at a time when domestic demand across parts of the region remains uneven and fragile. 

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With many economies heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, any sustained price surge would pose a dual threat — squeezing growth while complicating inflation dynamics.

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Japan sets the tone early with wages, current-account and trade figures on Monday, followed by final fourth-quarter GDP the following day. Household spending and private demand will be scrutinized for signs that the economy can withstand higher import costs should oil prices stay elevated. 

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Later in the week, producer prices and machinery orders will offer further clues on the economy at a time when the Bank of Japan is weighing the durability of its inflation cycle.

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Also on Monday, China releases producer prices and CPI figures. Later in the week, the Asian giant releases credit aggregates, loans and money supply figures that will test whether policy support is gaining traction, while trade numbers will indicate how resilient exports remain against a more uncertain global backdrop.

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South Korea publishes updated fourth quarter GDP figures on Tuesday while Australia has consumer and business confidence figures — just one week before the Reserve Bank’s March policy meeting where a back-to-back rate hike is a “live” possibility.

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India reports February inflation on Thursday, a key input for the country’s central bank which is likely to keep policy rates around current levels for an extended period as price pressures remain benign. It will also publish trade data for February.

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South Korea publishes early-month trade readings, a timely gauge of export momentum in semiconductors and autos. Taiwan’s trade data will similarly be parsed for tech-cycle signals.

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New Zealand rounds out the week with manufacturing activity and migration data, shedding light on capacity pressures and growth momentum as the Reserve Bank keeps a wary eye on inflation expectations

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Europe, Middle East, Africa

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In the euro zone, several reports for January will offer glimpses of how the region’s manufacturing fared at the start of the first quarter. 

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A key focus will be Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, where industrial production and factory orders on Monday will show any further impact from debt-fueled government spending on infrastructure and defense after some improvement at the end of 2025.

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Trade numbers both there and in France are published the following day, with production data for Italy and the whole euro region due on Friday. 

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European Central Bank policymakers will enter a quiet period on Thursday in advance of their March 19 rate decision. Among appearances before then, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and Vice President Luis de Guindos will speak on Wednesday.