US Dementia Cases to Double by 2060, According to New Study

We're already experiencing rising dementia cases across the world, and it seems likely that worse is to come: a new study predicts the number of people with dementia in the US to double by 2060.

Specifically, that means a million new cases per year, compared to current figures of around 500,000 new cases annually. According to the research team from various US institutes, the jump is directly tied to the growing age of the population in the US, a scenario that's also occurring in other countries.

"Our study results forecast a dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55," says epidemiologist Josef Coresh, from New York University.

An estimate of dementia rates in the US over the next 35 years. (Fang et al., Nature Medicine, 2024)

Through an analysis of data on 15,043 adults collected between 1987 and 2020, the researchers found the current risk of dementia after the age of 55 to be 42 percent – a level significantly higher than earlier estimates.

There was also an increase in dementia risk once over the age of 75, when the risk rose to 50 percent. With healthcare costs for dementia already estimated to be around $600 billion a year in the US, it's a serious cause for concern.

The research team believes that inaccurate medical records, early-stage dementia going undiagnosed, and underreporting in some parts of society could help to explain why these new estimates of risk are much higher than previous predictions.

Dementia risk was higher for women versus men (48 percent versus 35 percent), and for Black adults versus White adults (44 percent versus 41 percent). For those with two copies of the APOE4 gene, a known indicator of dementia risk, the risk level went up to 59 percent.

"Racial and ethnic minority adults and individuals from lower economic backgrounds have a higher burden of important risk factors, potentially contributing to differences in long-term dementia risk," write the researchers in their published study.

As for the future, US census projections were used to map the current situation against an older population – leading to the prediction of a doubling in cases. Again, there will be disparities between racial and ethnic groups, with rates in Black individuals expected to triple by 2060.

There is some hope: the new study notes that efforts to tackle health issues linked to dementia, such as high blood pressure and heart disease, could help to bring the number of cases down. Even something as apparently simple as making hearing aids more widely available could help.

"The pending population boom in dementia cases poses significant challenges for health policymakers in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more healthcare services for those with dementia," says Coresh.

The research has been published in Nature Medicine.