US Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Rose in June, NY Fed Survey Says

7v2d620zaoa3rja5]yooe1[9_media_dl_1.png Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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(Bloomberg) — Americans’ expectations for inflation over the near and medium term rose in June amid strong increases anticipated for medical care costs and rent, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Tuesday.

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Consumers said they see inflation at 3.7% over the next year, up from 3.5% in May. Expectations for inflation in three years increased to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022, up from 3.1%. Estimates for inflation in five years remained steady at 3%. 

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The survey also showed consumers are more optimistic about their finances and the labor market, though some worries remain.

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The report comes as investors see the Federal Reserve lifting its benchmark rate later this year to address elevated inflation. Policymakers have kept interest rates steady in 2026, though economic projections released last month showed nine officials see the need for at least one rate increase by year end.

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After months of facing higher energy costs, consumers said they see gas prices rising at the lowest rate since mid-2022. Their outlook for food prices also improved slightly in June, though households expect higher bills for medical care and rent. 

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Energy prices have declined in recent weeks, following an interim peace deal between the US and Iran. Earlier on Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams said he now sees a positive near-term outlook for inflation, which rose 4.2% in May from a year earlier.  

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The New York Fed survey comes after a jobs report last week showing the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June, though job growth slowed. 

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That contrast also showed among consumers in June. The perceived probability of losing one’s job fell, while the chances of finding a new role within three months of becoming unemployed rose.

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Still, consumers’ expectations of leaving their jobs voluntarily, usually viewed as a sign of confidence in the labor market, were at their lowest since July 2023. 

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The data also pointed to an improvement in consumers’ finances. The share of households saying their financial situation was better than last year increased in June, and expectations for future finances also improved. The average expectation that US stock prices would be higher one year from now rose to the highest since April 2021. 

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The New York Fed survey was fielded from June 1 through June 30, 2026.

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