Unilever, Reliance See Signs of Consumer Demand Revival in India

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UltraTech Cement Ltd., India’s biggest maker of this key construction material, expects a strong volumes growth on back of housing and infrastructure demand.

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Realtor DLF Ltd. is expecting sales in its high-end shopping complexes to grow as much as 10% in the year ending March 2026 after slightly underwhelming sales a year earlier, Pushpa Bector, senior executive director and business head at DLF Retail, said in an interview this month.

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The coming quarter will be “critical” for India’s consumption story, said Satish Meena, founder of consumer data firm, Datum Intelligence. “There is expected to be more money with customers” over the next couple months, he said.

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Tariff Shadow

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While India’s central bank maintains optimism about domestic growth, a top finance ministry official has warned of the ripple effects of US tariffs.

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The “first order” hit from US reciprocal tariffs on India, if imposed, could shave off up to 0.5 percentage point off its economic growth, which is “not a huge impact,” India’s Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said in Washington last week. “But the second order would be important” if the global economy grows less, he said.

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“Given global headwinds, exports and private investments are likely to be more impacted relative to consumption,” Nomura’s Sonal Varma told Bloomberg News. “Labor market signals are also mixed, so consumption itself is not out of the woods.”

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Some companies also remain cautious. Tata Consumer Products Ltd., the local partner for Starbucks Corp., said on April 23 it slowed the opening of outlets “a bit” due to softness in the economy.

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India’s largest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. has forecast a modest 2% growth for the sector in the year through March 2026.

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Trickle Down

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Others, however, are accelerating their growth initiatives anticipating that the trickle down effect of tax sops, rate cuts and bountiful monsoon — it boosts rural purchasing power — will culminate into a shopping spree.

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Reliance Retail, after streaming its operations and closing underperforming stores, plans to make a marketing and advertising splash for Shein in India after a low-key relaunch in February.

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Ambani’s unit will also further develop its 30-minute delivery format JioMart to muscle into India’s booming quick commerce segment.

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Unilever’s India unit is also stepping up investments.

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“On macro, the triggers are tending biasing toward positive now,” Rohit Jawa, chief executive officer at Hindustan Unilever, told analysts on Thursday. “We feel this is the time for us to lean in.”

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