Ukraine’s surge has Russia reeling — don’t give in to Putin now

After four years and unfathomable amounts of wasted blood and treasure, Russia not only isn’t winning its war on Ukraine — it’s facing its worst setback in some time.

Last Monday, Ukrainian drone attacks on the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk brought an estimated 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity to a halt, a catastrophic development for a sputtering economy that’s heavily dependent on its energy sector.

The Primorsk strike capped off a tremendous breakthrough in Kyiv’s efforts to push back Russian forces in the Donetsk region, where Ukrainian mines, mortars, artillery and unmanned aircraft reportedly killed 6,000 advancing soldiers between March 17 and March 20.

Yet according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the United States is now pressuring Ukraine to cede the critical Donbas region to Russia in return for security guarantees.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has denied Zelensky’s assertion, insisting that the US is merely acting as a neutral interlocutor between Russia and Ukraine.

I pray that it is so. 

Settling the war in Ukraine on Russia’s terms, at a time when Russia is on the back foot, would fatally undermine the incredible progress the president has made in restoring American deterrence.

It would embolden our enemies at a time when we cannot afford to show weakness.

Not only that, it would cave to the demands of a state that’s currently supplying Iran with the weapons and intelligence needed to kill American servicemen and women.

The president has always understood that thugs like Vladimir Putin only respect strength.

This recognition was at the heart of the common-sense policies we pursued during my time as secretary of state in his first term, and has underpinned the president’s historic campaign to defang the evil and destabilizing regime in Tehran.

As the nation’s consummate dealmaker, Trump understands better than anyone how to deploy leverage in pursuit of your objectives.

In the realm of foreign policy, that goal must always be to keep America free, prosperous and secure.

Russia has long partnered with America’s adversaries to undermine those core interests.

But today, it poses an even more immediate threat by providing Iran with drones, satellite imagery, intelligence support and targeting data.

According to Zelensky, Putin is now using his mafia tactics to try to “blackmail” the United States, offering to end its Iran assistance if the US stops providing intel to Ukraine.

What would it say to the world — and specifically, to China’s Xi Jinping — if we were to give the impression that such threats are effective?

History proves that appeasement is always more dangerous than standing one’s ground.

But given the Kremlin’s increasingly weak hand, it’s not only dangerous — it defies logic.

The casualty rate Russia is reportedly sustaining is absolutely stunning, with leaked military records showing that the odds of surviving on the front lines are close to zero.

That suggests the commonly cited figure of 1.2 million Russian casualties may be a conservative estimate.

Despite Russia’s willingness to use soldiers as cannon fodder, Ukraine has spent the past three months steadily recapturing territory, and has gained a global reputation for innovative warfighting and resilience.

Putin’s position isn’t just weaker today because of the battlefield advantages Ukraine has gained; it’s already reaping the consequences of allying itself with the Iranian dictatorship.

If the Islamic Republic goes the way of the Assad regime, Russia will lose a critical military and economic partner.

Moscow will see its ability to project power in the Middle East seriously diminished, while America and Israel’s interests prosper.

Vladimir Putin is not acting from a position of strength.

In fact, I’d venture to guess that, having watched the US and Israel decapitate Iran’s entire leadership, he’s pretty nervous right now.

We should be exploiting that fear, and make it clear to Putin and the rest of the world who has the upper hand.

We should impose real costs for actively aiding an enemy of the United States, while hardening our support for Ukraine’s war aims.

The idea that making a deal on Moscow’s terms will strengthen America does not withstand a moment’s scrutiny.

Doing so would undermine the president’s righteous efforts to reorder the world in America’s favor, and will invite further aggression — not just from Russia, but from bad actors everywhere, including China.

President Ronald Reagan once said, “Appeasement is not the road to peace; it is the road to war.”

We ignore the warnings of history at our peril.

Mike Pompeo was US secretary of state from 2018 to 2021.