Ukraine Looks Beyond Summer Offensive to a Crucial Winter in the War

A soldier prepares a cannon to fire from an artillery position in the Sumy region of Ukraine. Photo by Nikoletta Stoyanova /Photographer: Nikoletta Stoyanov

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(Bloomberg) — Volodymyr Zelenskiy is asking Western allies to speed up deliveries of air-defense systems and interceptor missiles to prepare for another winter of intense bombing that could prove to be the next critical moment in Kyiv’s battle to resist the Russian invasion.

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The topic came up during the Ukrainian president’s discussions with European leaders and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at a summit meeting in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, earlier this week, people familiar with the matter said. 

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While the request isn’t new — Kyiv has been pressing allies to supply air defense systems continuously since Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 — it’s now more urgent, because Ukraine’s power and heating facilities have become increasingly difficult to sustain after years of Russian air strikes against civilian infrastructure. 

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During the first years of the war, the biggest shifts on the battlefield tended to happen outside of winter months. Since then, developments in drone technology have made offensive maneuvers increasingly difficult creating a stalemate on the frontlines. So winter attacks on urban centers, transport and energy infrastructure have become an important part of the fighting. 

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According to the people briefed on the discussion, Zelenskiy told his allies that he’s expecting another Russian offensive this summer but the Kremlin’s forces have so far struggled to make significant gains and are suffering massive losses. 

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With peace talks stalled, Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely betting the conflict in the Middle East will divert weapons away from Kyiv, leaving the country especially vulnerable during cold months, said the people, speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks are private. 

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Ukrainian chief negotiator Rustem Umerov is expected to travel to Miami to meet with US special envoy Steve Witkoff as early as this week in a bid to revive the talks, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.

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Meanwhile, Russia told foreign governments and organizations to evacuate diplomatic staff and citizens from Kyiv, saying a retaliatory strike would be inevitable if Ukraine tried to attack Moscow during World War II Victory Day celebrations on May 9.

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Freezing temperatures earlier this year combined with Russia’s relentless attacks on energy infrastructure left millions without heating, power and water for weeks in a major test of Ukraine’s resilience. 

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Stockpiles of air-defense missiles have come under further strain as the US effectively stopped paying for military support to Kyiv, putting the burden on European allies to finance purchases of American-made weapons through the so-called Prioritized Ukraine Requirement List program.  

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Ukraine is particularly interested in obtaining US-made Patriot air defense systems and missiles. They are the only weapons produced in significant numbers that are able to effectively counter the most destructive ballistic missiles, which Russia is capable of producing in large quantities.