UK to Spend 5% of GDP on Security by 2035 to Hit NATO Goal

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Former Defense Secretary John Hutton told Bloomberg on Tuesday that getting to 3.5% core defense spending was “going to be hard, there’s no question at all about it.” But he urged the government to focus on increasing growth and getting people back to work. 

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“If we look now 10 years ahead and say the only way to do it is through cuts to welfare, I think we’ve put in the cart before the horse,” said Hutton, who served under the last Labour government. 

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The strategy also warned that for the first time in many years, the UK homeland has to “actively prepare” for the possibility of “coming under direct threat, potentially in a wartime scenario.” Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine — coupled with pressure from Trump for the UK and its neighbors in Europe to shoulder more of the burden for their own defense — has added more urgency to the project. 

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With more ambitious goals under discussion in recent weeks, Starmer was successful in persuading North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Mark Rutte in pushing back the time-line to reach the target from 2032 to 2035. All allies, other than Spain, are expected to commit to the target at NATO’s summit this week. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez obtained an exemption after several days of lobbying.

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Starmer’s office highlighted how broader expenditure on national security means the UK is closer to the fresh target than the numbers for raw military spending would suggest. To reach the new NATO goal, the government will broaden its definition of security spending to encompass national resilience and homeland defense — including protecting the country’s borders, supply chains and critical infrastructure.

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Once those areas are factored in, the UK expects to be at 4.1% of gross domestic product on security in 2027, Starmer’s office office said. Even so, there are no plans currently in place to increase core military spending between 2027 and 2029 — though as part of the new commitment, the UK would aim to spend 3.5% on its military by 2035.

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The UK isn’t alone in seeking to fudge the numbers: Spain brokered its exemption from the new target after days of diplomatic wrangling, saying it can get defense spending up to 2.1%, “nothing more, nothing less.” Spain has said the goal should be around capabilities rather than the amount spent.

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Germany meanwhile announced on Monday that it would lift core defense spending to 3.5% over the next five years, well ahead of the NATO timeline. Crucially, NATO will review the trajectory of its spending target in 2029, after Trump is due to leave office. Europe is bracing for a further US retreat from the region, with Trump’s administration due to present its military review following the summit.

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Europe Frets About US Retreating From Region Ahead of NATO

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Britain’s new security strategy marked a cultural shift toward becoming “more unapologetic and systematic in pursuit of our national interests,” the UK government wrote. This would see it invest more heavily in “hard power” and the lethality of its armed forces, strengthen its security relationships with the US, Europe, as well as Canada, the Gulf States, India and allies in the Indo-Pacific as well as ensure its borders and critical infrastructure are better protected.

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Still, Foreign Secretary David Lammy appeared to miscite the government’s own language on China in the House of Commons on Tuesday by describing the country as a “sophisticated and persistent threat.” Starmer’s government has so far shied away from being as explicit, and Lammy has pursued a more constructive relationship with China including visiting Beijing last year. The UK’s defense review calls China a “sophisticated and persistent challenge.”

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“The years ahead will test the UK,” the review said. “Our world is characterized by radical uncertainty.”

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—With assistance from Lucy White, Freya Jones, James Woolcock and Stephen Carroll.

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(Updates with Starmer comment in third paragraph.)

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