UK Inflation Stays Lower Than Expected as Food Prices Fall

9 hours ago 3
 Chris J. Ratcliffe/BloombergTKTK in Folkestone, UK, on Friday, Oct. 17, 2025. Inflation has surged on food and energy costs this year, with figures next week forecast to show it hitting 4% in September double the 2% target. Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg Photo by Chris J. Ratcliffe /Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — UK inflation unexpectedly held steady last month, a weaker-than-forecast reading that may keep alive hopes of a Bank of England interest-rate cut before the end of the year.

Financial Post

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Consumer prices rose 3.8% from a year earlier, unchanged from the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday. It was below the 4% economists and the BOE were expecting. 

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The ONS said upward pressure from auto fuel prices were offset by cheaper food prices. Services inflation, which the BOE is watching closely for signs of domestic price pressures, was unchanged at 4.7%.

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The figures bring some relief to households squeezed by more expensive food and energy bills, with September widely seen as a high-water mark for an inflation rate that has jumped from 1.7% a year ago. Prices pressures are now expected to steadily subside.

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They may also further ease concerns about lingering inflation in the wake of downbeat data on the economy and jobs market. While the BOE is unlikely to cut rates at its meeting next month, coming just weeks before the government’s crucial budget, the odds of a move in December have edged higher.

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The central bank’s rate-setting panel is currently divided between hawks that are concerned over persistent inflation and more dovish officials who are putting more emphasis on a weakening economy and jobs market. Governor Andrew Bailey has taken a balanced stance, saying the timing of the next move is uncertain.

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Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has promised to deliver fiscal plans that help contain inflation, hinting that she will tackle pressures from rises in regulated prices. 

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—With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Harumi Ichikura and Mark Evans.

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