UK Inflation Stayed at 3% in Weeks Leading Up to Iran War

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(Bloomberg) — UK inflation held at an 11-month low before the war in Iran sent petrol costs soaring and threatened to deliver another shock to household finances.

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Consumers price growth stayed at 3% in February, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday. It was in line with economists’ expectations for an unchanged reading.

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Services inflation — which is watched for signs of domestic price pressures — cooled slightly to 4.3%, the lowest since March 2022.

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“The largest upwards driver was the price of clothing,” said ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner. “This was offset by falls in petrol costs, with prices collected before the start of the conflict in the Middle East and subsequent rise in crude oil prices.”

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The pound held losses against the dollar, to trade 0.2% lower at $1.3385.

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February’s figures have been overshadowed by conflict in the Middle East upending the outlook for inflation and prompting traders to bet on the Bank of England turning to interest-rate hikes to stop a feedback loop in prices.

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The UK central bank expects a surge in petrol prices to immediately push up inflation to 3.5% in March before gas and electricity bills climb when the UK’s energy price cap is updated in the summer. There are also signs the shock is rapidly feeding through to businesses with manufacturers suffering the sharpest pick-up in cost pressures in over three decades in March.

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The latest geopolitical crisis will evoke painful memories on Threadneedle Street after it struggled to contain the energy price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Last week the Monetary Policy Committee said it “stands ready to act” with even one of its most dovish rate-setters warning that hikes are on the cards in a prolonged energy price surge.

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—With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Mark Evans and Sylvia Westall.

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